Iraq Conflict Feeds International Terror Threat

[Menydh]

Iraq Conflict Feeds International Terror Threat -CIA

Reuters
February 16, 2005

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Islamic militants waging a deadly insurgency against U.S.-led forces in Iraq pose an emerging international terrorism threat, CIA Director Porter Goss said on Wednesday.

In his first public appearance as U.S. spymaster, Goss described Iraqi insurgents, including al Qaeda ally Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, as part of a Sunni militant movement inspired by Osama bin Laden and intent on attacking Americans.

"The Iraq conflict, while not a cause of extremism, has become a cause for extremists," Goss told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

"Those jihadists who survive will leave Iraq experienced in and focused on acts of urban terrorism. They represent a potential pool of contacts to build transnational terrorist cells, groups and networks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries," he said.

President Bush, who portrays U.S.-led actions in Iraq as the leading edge of democratic reform in the Middle East, cited Iraqi backing for international terrorism as a reason for the 2003 invasion.

But a top level U.S. inquiry found last year that there had in fact been no collaboration between al Qaeda and Iraq under President Saddam Hussein.

Bush critics say the invasion was a distraction from the global war against terrorism declared after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks by al Qaeda on the United States and has stirred up a violent response in Iraq that inflamed further terrorism.

"These sentences indicate Goss is very much listening to what his analysts are saying, and not necessarily to what the White House wants to hear," said Kenneth Katzman, terrorism analyst for the Congressional Research Service.

"Zarqawi has sought to bring about the final victory of Islam over the West, and he hopes to establish a safe haven in Iraq from which his group could operate against 'infidel' Western nations and 'apostate' Muslim governments," Goss said.

Presenting the CIA's annual "threat assessment," Goss also said insurgents achieved some of their goals in the Jan. 30 Iraqi elections by keeping Sunni Arab voter turnout low.

HUGE SPYING LAPSES

A long-time intelligence officer and former chairman of the House of Representatives intelligence committee, Goss took over the CIA last year with a mandate to reform the premier U.S. spy agency after huge lapses in the run-up to the Sept. 11 attacks and the 2003 Iraq invasion. His predecessor, George Tenet, resigned amid widespread criticism over flawed intelligence about the threat from Iraq that critics say was exaggerated to meet a political agenda.

Goss told the lawmakers that U.S. authorities and their allies had dealt "serious blows" to the al Qaeda network.

"Despite these successes, however, the terrorist threat to the U.S. in the homeland and abroad endures," he said in an assessment that differed little from last year's report.

Goss was one of several top officials to appear before the Senate committee, which is scrutinizing U.S. intelligence on Iran, North Korea and other hot spots in hopes of avoiding mistakes committed before the war on Iraq.

FBI Director Robert Mueller testified al Qaeda remained intent on attacking the United States, likely by using low-tech methods of the kind employed in 2001 when terrorists killed about 3,000 people after hijacking airliners with box-cutters.

Goss said al Qaeda or another group would likely try to eclipse the Sept. 11 attacks by using nuclear, chemical or biological weapons that authorities say could be stolen or purchased from nations such as North Korea.

Officials also warned that North Korea, which declared last week that it had nuclear arms, could soon be ready to test a new long-range nuclear-capable missile which could hit targets across North America.

Private analysts doubt North Korea could pose a direct threat to the U.S. mainland any time soon.


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[see also "Shi\'ite Victory on the Polls" news thread]

[Menydh]

And they don't have a clue as to the numbers of the Iraqi resistance (now Islamic fighters thanks to America's retardness)...

U.S. says Iraq insurgency size unknown

Reuters
February 16, 2005

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence agencies have failed to provide reliable estimates of the size of Iraq's insurgency, Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says.

Rumsfeld, during a hearing of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee on Wednesday, declined to publicly answer lawmakers who asked him the numerical strength of the insurgency fighting the roughly 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.

"The intelligence community looks at that. The CIA does, DIA (Defence Intelligence Agency) does, others do. And they have differing assessments," Rumsfeld said.

"My job in the government is not to be the principal intelligence officer and try to rationalize differences between Iraqis, the CIA and the DIA. I see these reports. Frankly, I don't have a lot of confidence in any of them, on that number," Rumsfeld said.

In later Senate testimony, Rumsfeld also said in later testimony the Pentagon had no plans for a permanent U.S. troop presence in Iraq, but did not rule out such an arrangement with a future elected government. He also suggested the United States may be able to bring home its troops within 18 months if the insurgency was contained.

The Pentagon has struggled to gauge the size, composition and organization of the insurgents who have waged a bloody guerrilla war in Iraq since an American-led invasion toppled President Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Rumsfeld testified, "I am not going to give you a number for it, because it's not my business," to do intelligence work. He added that he could not reveal CIA and DIA estimates because they were classified.

Rumsfeld did not explain his lack of confidence in the estimates. But he has been outspoken about the need for more and better human intelligence to be gathered by the U.S. intelligence community.

IRAQI ESTIMATE

Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, disputed an estimate of the size of the insurgency offered recently by Gen. Mohammed Abdullah Shahwani, director of the Iraqi intelligence service.

Shahwani had said there were 200,000 insurgents, including at least 40,000 hard-core fighters, with the remainder being part-time fighters and supporters who provide money, intelligence, food and shelter.

Myers said U.S. estimates were "considerably lower." Rumsfeld called Shahwani's numbers "totally inconsistent" with U.S. estimates.

Critics have accused Rumsfeld of encroaching on the CIA by expanding Pentagon intelligence operations.

Rumsfeld said the Pentagon expected 200,000 Iraqi security personnel to be trained and equipped by September or October before elections on a new constitution, up from 136,000 now. He said he expected 230,000 to be in place by December or January for the next round of elections, with the ultimate goal 270,000 by June 2006.

The timetable for bringing home U.S. troops arose at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing.

New Mexico Republican Sen. Pete Domenici asked Rumsfeld, "If the end of this war is when they (Iraqis) no longer need us, how close are we to having them trained so that we will not be needed anymore? ... Could they be ready in two years, in a year in a half?"

Rumsfeld responded, "Well, it could be before that," depending on when the insurgency can be subdued.


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