Iraq - Shi'ite Victory on the Polls

[Menydh]

Shi'ite Bloc Wins Iraq Polls, Sunnis Marginalized

Reuters
13 February, 2005

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A Shi'ite Islamist bloc won Iraq's first election since Saddam Hussein's overthrow, sealing the political resurgence of the long-oppressed majority but leaving the restive Sunni Arab minority in the cold.

The Electoral Commission said on Sunday the Shi'ite list, known as the United Iraqi Alliance, took more than 47 percent of the vote. But that was less than the bloc had predicted and leaves it six or seven seats short of a majority in parliament.

A powerful Kurdish alliance came second with 25 percent, while a grouping led by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shi'ite, came third with nearly 14 percent.

Few Sunni Arabs took part in the Jan. 30 voting, which means the minority that has traditionally ruled modern Iraq and held a privileged position under Saddam, a Sunni, will have just a handful of National Assembly seats and little political clout.

That could stoke the insurgency in Iraq which is being fought mainly by Sunni Arab guerrillas who want to drive out U.S.-led troops and overthrow the American-backed government.

The commission said 8.55 million Iraqis, or 58 percent of registered voters, cast ballots in the Jan. 30 poll, Iraq's first multi-party election for half a century. The number of valid votes was around 8.45 million.

The national vote was for a 275-member National Assembly that must agree on a president and two vice-presidents by a two-thirds majority. Those three officials will then agree on a prime minister and cabinet, and their choices must be approved by a majority in the assembly.

Sunni Arab turnout was low. Only two percent of eligible voters in the Sunni-dominated Anbar province cast ballots, and only 29 percent in the mainly Sunni Salahadin province. Sunnis make up about 20 percent of Iraq's 27 million people.

The main Sunni Arab group in the assembly will probably be a bloc led by President Ghazi al-Yawar, although it is set to have only around five seats. A secular party led by Sunni elder statesmen Adnan Pachachi looked unlikely to win any seats.

"The image of Iraq that these results suggest is not real. That is obvious," Pachachi told Reuters.

In another sign of tensions ahead, Kurds in the ethnically mixed city of Kirkuk erupted in celebrations after results showed them well ahead in the provincial vote -- an outcome that will anger Arabs and Turkmen, who also lay claim to the city.

HORSE-TRADING

With no bloc gaining dominance on its own, there has already been furious horse-trading to try to strike deals.

The United Iraqi Alliance insists that one of its candidates -- probably current Finance Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi or Vice President Ibrahim Jaafari -- be appointed prime minister.

The Kurds want their candidate, Jalal Talabani, to be president or prime minister. Under one scenario, the two blocs could do a deal with a Shi'ite candidate getting the prime minister's job and Talabani the presidency.

But Allawi, who visited Kurdistan on Saturday and met Talabani, may also try to form alliances to improve his chances. If he can make a deal with the Kurds and persuade some of the Shi'ite alliance to break away, he may be able to keep his job.

Even if Sunni Arabs are largely shut out of government, they could still potentially veto the new Iraqi constitution due to be written this year, causing political deadlock. One of the main tasks of the National Assembly is to oversee the drafting of a constitution which must be approved by a referendum.

Sunni insurgents who have relentlessly attacked U.S. troops, Iraqi security forces and officials have also turned their violence on Shi'ites, raising fears of sectarian civil war.

Iraq has announced it will close its land borders from Thursday to try to prevent a flood of foreign pilgrims arriving for Ashura, one of the holiest events in the Shi'ite calendar, when millions of people converge on shrines in Iraq.

A car bomb exploded near an Iraqi security forces checkpoint on the road between Hilla and Kerbala in a mainly Shi'ite area south of Baghdad on Sunday, killing at least one person.

Suicide bombers attacked pilgrims in Baghdad and Kerbala last year, killing 171 people, and Ashura could be a flashpoint again this year, especially if the poll results fuel tension.

The bodies of two men who worked with Allawi's party were found in a rebellious district of Baghdad on Sunday, police said. In the northwest of the capital, gunmen assassinated two senior Iraqi army officers and their driver. The al Qaeda network in Iraq claimed responsibility for the attack.

In the town of Baquba northeast of Baghdad, assailants shot dead a Communist party member who was also a local councillor.

In Mosul, a rocket attack on the city hall building killed at least two people, hospital officials said. (Additional reporting by Maher al-Thanoon in Mosul, Sami al-Jumaili in Kerbala and Luke Baker and Waleed Ibrahim in Baghdad).


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[Menydh]

FACTBOX-Communities in Iraq

Reuters
February 13, 2005

LONDON (Reuters) - A Shi'ite lslamist alliance won Iraq's first election since Saddam Hussein's overthrow, with a Kurdish bloc taking second place and a secular grouping led by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi coming third. Results of the Jan. 30 election, announced by the Electoral Commission, show that few Sunni Arabs took part, effectively marginalizing the country's previously dominant minority.

Here are short profiles of Iraq's various communities.

SHI'ITES

* Mostly Arab Shi'ite Muslims form a 60 to 65 percent majority in Iraq, but historically their numbers have not been matched by political power, with the Sunni Muslim Arab minority dominant. Shi'ite opposition groups were oppressed during Saddam's rule. Some looked to mainly Shi'ite Iran for support.

The Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), was formed in Iran in 1982 by Iraqis sympathetic to the Islamic republic, then at war with Iraq. The Islamic Daawa party, Iraq's oldest Shi'ite party, was founded in 1957 in Najaf by Ayatollah Mohammed Baqer al-Sadr. It went underground in Saddam's time when its members were persecuted.

Both groups are in the mostly Shi'ite United Iraqi Alliance, which won 47.6 percent of the vote, less than it had predicted.

SUNNIS

* Sunni Muslim Arabs make up about 20 percent of the population and have traditionally ruled Iraq since its creation by Britain in 1920. Their domination dates from the time when Sunni Ottomans took control of the region in the 16th century.

After the Baath party seized power in 1968, it drew its support increasingly from Sunni Arab clans in northwestern Iraq.

The Iraqi Islamic Party, the main Sunni group to emerge since the war, boycotted the election, saying it should be delayed because violence would deter voters in Sunni heartlands, where a fierce anti-U.S. insurgency is raging.

Sunni turnout was low. Only two percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the solidly Sunni Arab province of Anbar, west of Baghdad, where the insurgency has been fiercest.

CHRISTIANS:

* Christians form up to 3 percent of the population. Assyrian Christians, mostly Chaldean Catholics, are the biggest group. Others are Syrian Orthodox or protestant.

Christians, present in Iraq since the 1st century, were free to worship under Saddam's secular regime, whose most prominent Christian member was deputy prime minister Tareq Aziz. They have grown more fearful of religious intolerance and sectarian violence since the war and emigration is on the rise.

Two groups, the Assyrian Democratic Movement and the Chaldean National Council, joined forces for the election.

KURDS:

* Kurds are descendants of ancient Indo-European tribes who live in parts of modern Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria.

Kurdish nationalist aspirations emerged in the late 19th century but remain unfulfilled. Iraqi Kurds, who are mostly Sunnis, form up to a fifth of the population, living mainly in the north. They have fought for self-rule for decades.

The two main Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, set aside their past feuding and fought the election together to try to consolidate Kurdish autonomy within a federal Iraq.

The Kurdish alliance won over 25 percent of the vote, giving it a potentially pivotal political role.

TURKMEN:

* Predominantly Muslim Turkmens, about two percent of the population, settled in Mesopotamia from the 11th century and have close cultural and linguistic ties with Turkey.

Turkmens live mainly in northern Iraq, around Mosul and Kirkuk, cities they see as their historical and cultural base.

Some Turkmen parties joined the United Iraqi Alliance.


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[Menydh]

FACTBOX-Key Facts on Iraq

Reuters
February 13, 2005

LONDON (Reuters) - Here are the some key facts about Iraq:

POPULATION: About 27 million. Arabic, the official language, is spoken most widely. Arabs make up 75 to 80 percent of the population and non-Arab Kurds 15 to 20 percent. Other minorities include Turkmen and Assyrians.

RELIGION: Predominantly Islam. Shi'ite Muslims form a majority of 60 to 65 percent. Sunni Muslim Arabs, who form about 20 percent, have traditionally ruled the country. Most Iraqi Kurds are Sunnis. Christians form about 3 percent.

CURRENCY: In January 2004 new Iraqi dinar bank notes replaced those bearing the face of ousted leader Saddam Hussein.

ECONOMY: Iraq's proven oil reserves of 112 billion barrels are second only to those of Saudi Arabia. Iraq is still trying to restore output capacity lost to sabotage, the 1990-2003 U.N. sanctions and conflicts including the 1980-1988 war with Iran. Exports before Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, which prompted the sanctions, were around 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Iraqi oil officials say exports could reach 1.95 million bpd in 2005, if sabotage stops, compared to 1.55 million bpd in 2004, mainly from the Basra offshore Gulf terminal. Other industries include mining, gas, construction, fishing, forestry and agriculture.

HISTORY:

* Known to the ancient world as Mesopotamia, modern Iraq was carved from the ruins of the Ottoman empire in 1920 by Britain under a League of Nations mandate.

* The League mandate ended in 1932 and Iraq, ruled by a British-installed Hashemite king, won independence. It became a republic in 1958 when a military coup overthrew the Hashemites.

* The Baath Party seized power briefly in 1963, returning to power in a coup in 1968. Saddam became president in 1979 after more than a decade as Iraq's effective strongman.

* Saddam led Iraq into war with Iran from 1980 to 1988 and invaded Kuwait in 1990. U.S.-led forces drove Iraqi troops out of the Gulf state in the 1991 Gulf War seven months later.

* U.S.-led forces invaded Iraq in March 2003 to rid it of weapons of mass destruction, which were not found. U.S. troops captured Baghdad on April 9, overthrowing Saddam.

* On June 28, 2004, the United States formally returned sovereignty to an interim government led by Iyad Allawi, though it has kept up to 150,000 troops there to fight insurgents.

* Multiparty elections took place on Jan. 30, 2005, for a transitional National Assembly charged with choosing a new government and drafting a permanent constitution.



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[Timo]

What will happen when a Shi'ite Government demands an Islamist state or even an alliance with Iran? What will the USA do then?

[Menydh]

That's one of the funniest parts of it. Bush has been selling it as a war against Islamic terrorism, and the truth is that he has force deposed the one regime in the Middle East which restrained Islamism.

With the Shi'ites as the majority in numbers the outcome will have to be, sooner or later, a pro-Islamic government, be it of its own or under the influence of Iran's.

The guy is a retard.

[etoile noir]

Originally Posted by Timo

What will happen when a Shi'ite Government demands an Islamist state or even an alliance with Iran? What will the USA do then?

glad to see we share the same thoughts, i.e. it's not a matter of if the shi'ites demand an islamist state, it's simply a matter of when.

the results of this election - closely monitored and presumably reliable - are a clear indication of a complete rejection of american interference in iraqi affairs.

i now wonder what their friends in israel will have to say about this unexpected outcome.

[Phlegethon]

With an American election system the results would have been to Dubya's liking. I guess the voting machines with the special "enhanced" software did not work without electricity.

[Menydh]

More proof that Iraq's invasion is retarded from the viewpoint of fighting Islamic terrorism:

"Iraq Conflict Feeds International Terror Threat"

Instead it has fuelled Islamic terrorism!

[Timo]

Originally Posted by etoile noir

glad to see we share the same thoughts, i.e. it's not a matter of if the shi'ites demand an islamist state, it's simply a matter of when.

Great minds think alike!

Of course it is only a matter of when! They will slowly, or quickly make the inevitable turn towards the Islamo-Facists or Islamic State, that the "Coilition of the Willing" have ever feared. I think they will do it "democratically" too. The Iraqis aren't stupid, I don't think they will do it through military force like a Putsch or something. That will only give the USA a further excuse to annex the whole region. They will do it through "legitimate" channels and by voting for it. The Iraqi Shi'ites want an Islamic State, and under the oppression (disputable, though they certainly think they were oppressed) of the Sunni (controled) regime of Saddam, they turned mostly to Shi'ite Iran when they could, esp. during the Iran-Iraq war.
There are mainly two categories that I can see to put on "insurgents" in Iraq.

Loyalists: Those that liked the Saddam regime and are loyal, be they mostly Sunni or some loyal Baathist Shi'ites, Christians or Secularists. Most of these people were trained prior to the take over by the Coilition and are very skilled. The men left fighting are the ones that were strong enough to survive so-far, so they are the best of the best, and will be hard to take out. They are experts at their games and know how to survive to fight another day.

Islamicists: These are mostly Shi'ites with ties to other Shi'ite controled nations, like Iran. Their founding can be traced to those nations. They are fighting not to bring back Saddam or a Baathist government, rather to instate a Islamic nation, unlike the Secular Socialist Government under Saddam. They are radical fundimentalists and some, if not many, are foreigners that came into Iran to "free" her from who they see as the crusaders. Others are Iraqi Shi'ites, like those foreigners, who want to see their homeland under control of a government like that of Iran.

So far, the US has been unable to take out these groups and cells. They tried at Fallujah, and claimed a great success, but later had to admit that Fallujah wasn't a big success, because it really did nothing to route the fighters. What I mean is that they stupidly made notice of their advance before they launched it, giving warning to civilians and everyone that they were to take the area. Thus most of the rebel fighters simply left, and went elsewhere.

the results of this election - closely monitored and presumably reliable - are a clear indication of a complete rejection of american interference in iraqi affairs.

Yes, but one must also watch the way the system is set up, so that minorities who are pro-USA (like the Kurds) are given an voice in the goverment, which is not in proportion to their population size. Though, I think even this might back-fire and the Kurds may seek even more independence, perhaps a state of their own - agianst the wishes of the USA.

I now wonder what their friends in israel will have to say about this unexpected outcome.

I haven't found really anything much on the news about Israel's responce, which I find wierd. Usually when they are displeased they go nuts about something or another, but I haven't seen that. Yet I haven't seen signs of them being pleased with the results either - or it is just my perseption.