Nationalism casts shadow over Turkey's poll battle

[Marcus Marulus]

Nationalism casts shadow over Turkey's poll battle

Today's crucial election is pitting the secular against the Islamic. But growing ethnic tensions and violence are emerging that could prove to be the decisive factor

Nicholas Birch in Istanbul
Sunday July 22, 2007
The Observer

Standing in front of a crowd in the north-eastern Turkish city of Erzurum, Devlet Bahceli waved a length of greased rope. 'If you can't find any,' he yelled, addressing the Prime Minister, Tayyip Erdogan, 'you can hang him with this.'
The man he wanted hanged was Abdullah Ocalan, captured in 1999 after the Kurdish separatist war he started had killed an estimated 35,000 people. Turkey sentenced him to death, but under pressure from the EU commuted the sentence to life imprisonment.

Turkey today holds perhaps the most important parliamentary elections in its history. The poll was called four months early after the political deadlock over a suitable presidential candidate that paralysed the country in May.


The governing AKP has based its campaign on its economic record. The opposition parties have focused on accusing the Islamic-rooted party of threatening Turkey's secular system.

But it is the reigniting of the Kurdish conflict, which has killed more than 70 soldiers this summer, that has become the unexpected big issue for voters in today's elections, bolstering nationalist candidates such as Bahceli.

Head of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) that is likely to win at least 80 seats in parliament today, his supporters are descendents of the semi-fascistic 'Grey Wolves' of the bloody civil conflict of the 1970s. MHP has mellowed with age. The same cannot be said of the Republican People's Party, or CHP, set up by the founder of the Turkish Republic, Kemal Ataturk, and torch-bearer of his secularist legacy. In the 1990s, at the height of the Kurdish war, CHP wrote one of the most liberal reports on Turkey's gangrenous Kurdish issue. Now, it has slid into overt nationalism, and leads the growing band of Turks opposed to EU membership.

'We're a social democratic party,' said CHP spokesman Onur Oymen. He insists that nationalism in Turkey has none of its European connotations of racism. 'It simply means defence of national interests,' he said.

It is a curious way of describing the comments of another CHP deputy, Bayram Meral, during recent debates on a law to enable non-Muslim Turks to reclaim properties confiscated by the state. 'What's this law about? It's about giving "Agop" his property back,' Meral railed, using a common Armenian name. 'Congratulations to the government! You ignore the villagers, the workers and the farmers to worry yourself with Agop's business.'

CHP opposed the law, as it has opposed countless efforts by Turkey's government to reform a system where the rights of individuals limp in a distant second behind laws protecting the state.

Much of the blame for the secularists' slide into authoritarianism lies with Europe, whose growing Islamophobia and bungling over Cyprus has convinced many Turks that their three-year-old accession bid is going nowhere.

'I fought all my life for Turkey's EU bid,' says Onur Oymen, a former ambassador to Germany. 'Now some European friends are saying we can only ever expect secondary status. We cannot accept that.'

There is much talk of European hypocrisy. but the roots of CHP's malaise are much older. Most left-wing parties are born out of opposition, but CHP began its life as the state, and it retains the authoritarian mindset of the early years of the republic. It increasingly suggests that time can be turned back to the party's 1920s heyday, when Ataturk cut all ties with the Ottoman past and replaced them with imported 'contemporary civilisation'.

Onur Oymen is a case in point. 'Is Erdogan capable of doing what Ataturk did?' he angrily replied to a governing party deputy who had the temerity to suggest his party was modern.

There was the same sense of time warp at the huge secularist marches in April and May, pointed out by Segolene Royal, unsuccessful candidate in France's recent presidential elections, as evidence that Turkey should join the EU. In fact, the ubiquity of pictures of Ataturk, and the rhetoric, created an atmosphere redolent of the 1920s.

'We won the Liberation War despite the fanatics and we won't lose now,' ran one poster, referring to the war leading to Turkey's foundation in 1923. Others had badges reading simply: 'Ataturk will win the war.'
'We are today's mad Turks,' schoolteacher Hasan Devecioglu said, referring to a popular novel about the liberation struggle published in 2005. Turgut Ozakman's Those Mad Turks tells of how, while the Sultan and his government collaborated with Great Power plans to carve up Turkey, Ataturk's Turkish nationalists fought from the depths of Anatolia. For today's secularists, it is the pro-Western, pro-market government that is collaborating in foreigners' efforts to divide the country.

It all leaves Turks without a viable civilian alternative to AKP. Without the reforms AKP has pushed through, Turkey would not have its place on the ladder to Europe. Since then, it has lost its way. Doubts are growing as to whether it has any vision beyond the criteria defining whether a country is eligible to join the EU.

Erdogan appears increasingly irascible, and today's election is unlikely to open the way to change. Polls show the government well ahead and CHP second, similar to the 2002 results that polarised the secular and the religious-minded. Noose-waving Bahceli is set for parliament, and a possible coalition with secularists.

It reminds Murat Belge, a prominent left-wing intellectual, of Weimar Germany. 'With its constitution and its government, Weimar represented the high-tide mark of German democracy,' he wrote in the liberal daily Radikal on Friday. 'Within ten years ... Hitler was installed as Chancellor.' The comparison seems unduly pessimistic, but it should ring a warning to Europe, whose ambivalence to Turkey has undermined the reform process.

Turkish election: Q & A


Why the early poll?

Today's voting was brought forward after a deadlock in the political system in May when the governing AKP's (Justice and Development Party) attempt to elect a new President was blocked by judges. The choice - Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul - brought millions of secular Turks out in protest and infuriated opposition parties. Gul, whose wife wears the headscarf, was seen as too close to the religious Prime Minister, Recip Tayyip Erdogan.

What is at stake?

Opposition parties say this is a referendum on a secular or an Islamic state, and that a second term for the AKP threatens the heritage of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of secular Turkey.
The Islamic-rooted AKP says it is a vote for democracy or for authoritarianism. It says five years of annual economic growth and a series of radical reforms will be ruined by disunited opposition groups.
But Turkey is not a truly secular state. Religion is not divided from the government. Since the 1980 military coup, schoolchildren attend obligatory religious classes.

What have been the issues?

AKP swept to power in 2002 thanks to its promise to reform and pull Turkey into Europe. AKP delivered both economic growth and a start to EU negotiations. But the mood today is different. Nobody talks about the EU any more. People are more concerned about unemployment (now high at 10 per cent), the collapse of agriculture and on whether to invade northern Iraq to suppress any violent Kurdish bid for independence. The conviction that Washington supports Iraqi Kurdish goals means anti-Americanism is sky-high, strengthening authoritarian secularist and nationalist calls to break with the West.

The tax system is also in chaos - Turkey's unregistered economy is though to be worth almost 50 per cent of GDP.

Who are the key players?

The AKP has mass support among the religious and conservative population, but says that rather than Islamist it is pluralist - defending the rights of religious Muslims against constitutional restrictions. It backs EU entry, democratic reform and extending the rights of the large Kurdish minority.

The main opposition Republican People's Party is left-leaning and firmly secular, sceptical of reforms promoted by the EU and of extending Kurdish rights. It promoted May's mass rallies. The far-right, nationalist National Action Party (MHP) is the only other party likely to overcome the 10 per cent threshold needed to enter parliament. It is hostile to the EU and Kurds, and wants military intervention in northern Iraq to root out bases of the separatist Kurdish PKK group.

What results are likely?

Most polls suggest AKP will pick up around 40 per cent of today's votes, 6 per cent more than in 2002. The chief opposition RPP party is polling roughly 20 per cent, followed closely by the right-wing nationalists of the National Action Party. The new parliament is also likely to contain at least 20 Kurdish deputies.
So with three parties competing this time, AKP is likely to lose seats despite extra votes. It will almost certainly fall short of the two-thirds quorum needed to elect a President and make constitutional changes.

[source]

[Marcus Marulus]

Turkey re-elects governing party

Thousands of AKP voters turned out to celebrate their win


Supporters of Turkey's governing AK Party are celebrating after the country's prime minister claimed a comprehensive general election victory.


Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to work for national unity after his party won re-election with almost 50% of votes.
He told cheering crowds in Ankara that the AKP victory was a triumph for Turkish democracy.

Opponents had insisted that a win for the Islamist-rooted AKP could undermine Turkey's secular traditions.

The election was called after opposition parties in parliament blocked the AK Party's nominee for the post of president, causing political deadlock.

But the BBC's Chris Morris, in Ankara, the Turkish capital, says the AKP has now scored a stunning victory, and those who still believe it is a threat to the secular system are clearly in a minority.




Reports said the AKP had won about 47% of the nationwide vote after some three-quarters of votes were counted.

Two opposition parties won the 10% share needed to guarantee seats in parliament: the secularist Republican People's Party (CHP) polled 20%, and the right-wing Nationalist Action Party (MHP) 14%.

Those gains meant the AK Party would have about 340 seats in the 550-member parliament, Turkish media said.
Estimates said the CHP would win 112 seats and the MHP 70 seats, with about 25 going to independent candidates.

Unity call

Speaking in Ankara, Mr Erdogan said his party would continue pursuing Turkey's ambitions of joining the European Union.






In front of cheering crowds waving Turkish flags and the blue flags of the AKP, Mr Erdogan said he would work for all Turkish people, no matter who they had voted for.

"Democracy has passed a very important test," he said, pledging to continue economic and democratic reforms.
"Whoever you have voted for... We respect your choices. We regard your differences as part of our pluralist democracy. It is our responsibility to safeguard this richness."

He also vowed to continue the fight against Kurdish rebels in the east of Turkey.

Sentiments high

Voting was compulsory and turnout was reported to be extremely high.

Some 42 million people were eligible to vote in the poll, while 14 parties vied for seats in parliament.
Poling stations were busy from early on Sunday, with supporters of the secular establishment out in force as well as AKP voters.

Many people broke into applause as Turkey's military chief of staff arrived to cast his vote.
In the run-up to the election generals had warned that the army was prepared to step in to defend Turkey's strict secular system.

The deadlock in parliament emerged when the AKP tried to nominate Abdullah Gul, a former foreign minister, for the post of president - traditionally a secular figurehead for the republic.

Opposition parties blocked Mr Gul's appointment, as well as government reforms proposing direct elections to choose a president.

Turkey's current president and its secularist establishment have vowed to resist what they regard as the Islamist agenda of the AK Party.

Mr Erdogan's government dismisses that portrayal, pointing to its record of five straight years of economic growth and the start of membership negotiations with the European Union.

[source]

[Marcus Marulus]

Ruling party wins big in Turkey

ASSOCIATED PRESS
July 23, 2007


Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) greeted Istanbul residents after he voted yesterday in parliamentary elections. Mr. Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party captured about 340 seats in the 550-seat legislative assembly.

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey's Islamic-rooted ruling party won parliamentary elections by a wide margin yesterday, and the prime minister pledged to safeguard the country's secular traditions and do whatever the government deems necessary to fight separatist Kurdish rebels.

With more than 99 percent of votes counted, television news channels were projecting that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party, or AKP, would win 341 of the 550 seats, down from 351 in the outgoing parliament.

Two secular parties, the Republican People's Party and the Nationalist Action Party, won 112 seats and 70 seats, respectively, the television stations said.

Independents backed by a pro-Kurdish party seeking more rights for the ethnic minority won 24 of the remaining 27 seats, the stations said.

Mr. Erdogan, a devout Muslim, told supporters in his victory speech that he would preserve pluralistic democracy and work for national unity.

"We will never make concessions over the values of people, the basic principles of our republic. This is our promise. We will embrace Turkey as a whole without discriminating," he said at a rally in the capital, Ankara.

The election was called early to defuse a showdown with the military-backed, secular establishment, which contended that Mr. Erdogan and his allies were plotting to scrap Turkey's secular traditions despite their openness to the West.

Mr. Erdogan raised concern with his efforts as prime minister to make adultery a crime and appoint former Islamists to key positions. Critics were also troubled by his calls for the lifting of restrictions on the wearing of Islamic head scarves.


Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) greeted Istanbul residents after he voted yesterday in parliamentary elections. Mr. Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party captured about 340 seats in the 550-seat legislative assembly.



Analysts noted that the debate between secularism and Islam did not affect voters' decisions in elections yesterday.


Turkish citizens hope to continue to build on the economic success seen under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seen here with wife Emine Erdogan at the ruling party's headquarters in Ankara.

Although the ruling party's success has been touted as proof that Islam and democracy can coexist, the new government is likely to face persistent tension over the role of Islam in society.

"Democracy has passed a very important test," Mr. Erdogan said. "Whoever you have voted for ... we respect your choices. We regard your differences as part of our pluralist democracy. It is our responsibility to safeguard this richness."

The government will have to decide how to deal with violence by Kurdish rebels seeking autonomy. NATO member Turkey is considering whether to stage an offensive into northern Iraq against separatist Kurdish rebels who rest, train and resupply at bases there.

Mr. Erdogan has warned the incursion could happen if security talks with Iraq and the U.S. fail. He has invited Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to visit Turkey.

"In our struggle against separatist terrorists, we are determined to take every step at the right time," Mr. Erdogan said of the conflict with the Kurds.

Turkey has made big strides after the economic and political chaos of past decades, but some feared the vote could deepen divisions in the mostly Muslim nation of 70 million.

Under Mr. Erdogan, inflation has dropped, foreign investment has increased, and the economy has grown at an annual average of 7 percent. The success of the ruling party signaled continuity in economic reforms and in Turkey's troubled efforts to join the European Union.

[source]