Kosovo to declare independence, Serbia claims

[Arthur Gordon Pym]

Kosovo to declare independence, Serbia claims

Mark Tran and agencies
Friday February 8, 2008
Guardian Unlimited

Kosovo will set to declare independence from Serbia next week, the Serbian government claimed today, stoking fears of renewed instability in the region.

The Serbian minister for Kosovo said his government has information that the province will declare independence on February 17.

Slobodan Samardzic said in a statement that "the government of Serbia is receiving relevant information" that Kosovo's government will "illegally declare the unilateral independence of Kosovo on Sunday February 17".

Samardzic's statement was issued after a meeting with a senior EU official, Stefan Lehne, who was in Belgrade to clarify EU plans for a European policing and administrative mission to Kosovo.

Serbia has rejected the EU mission, saying it would be a prelude to secession. Samardzic said Serbia would not sign any cooperation agreement with the EU, arguing it would amount to "the signature for the independence of Kosovo".

Kosovo has been under UN administration since Nato expelled Serbian forces with a bombing campaign in 1999. Ethnic Albanians, who form 90% of the province's population of 1.9 million, want independence.

Kosovo's prime minister, Hashim Thaci, said about 100 countries were ready to recognise the province's independence as soon as it is declared. "We will have a powerful and massive recognition," he told a news conference.

Thaci was speaking after his weekly meeting with Joachim Ruecker, head of the UN's Kosovo mission. Thaci did not name any countries or specify when he would declare independence.

Some European diplomats fear an independent Kosovo would mean a return to instability in the Balkans.

Serbia has warned the west of serious consequences to secession, suggesting that Kosovo could be partitioned, as Serbs in the north of the province align themselves with Bosnian Serbs seeking independence, creating a Serbian republic, or "Republika Srpska", in Bosnia.

The Serbian government has ruled out the threat of military action against Kosovo, but has warned of destabilisation, as "volunteers" - a euphemism for paramilitaries - from Serbia proper would go to "help" the Kosovo Serbs.

Pro-western politicians in Belgrade who oppose Kosovo's independence have raised the prospect of Serbia lurching further to the right as nationalist politicians seek a closer alliance with Russia.

This week, Serbia's nationalist prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, blocked the signing of a pact between Belgrade and the EU in an attempt to delay what seems like Kosovo's inevitable secession. The EU has been trying to soften the blow by promising Belgrade EU membership.

Senior EU officials are furious that Kostunica refuses to allow pro-European members of his government to travel to Brussels to sign a pact that would lead to trade and travel liberalisation and encourage Serbia's accession to the EU, which is supported by most Serbs.

Olli Rehn, the EU commissioner for enlargement, said Kostunica had broken a promise to him, and said that politicians in Belgrade were filing for divorce between Serbia and the EU before they had even been married.

Kostunica's decision to veto the signing in Brussels is likely to bring down his government only days after a pro-European, Boris Tadic, was elected Serbian president.

Kostunica has abandoned his pro-western Democratic party coalition allies in favour of an impromptu alliance with the extreme nationalist opposition, the Serbian Radical party.

[source]

[Crvena zvezda]

Olli Rehn, the EU commissioner for enlargement, said Kostunica had broken a promise to him, and said that politicians in Belgrade were filing for divorce between Serbia and the EU before they had even been married.

Kostunica's decision to veto the signing in Brussels is likely to bring down his government only days after a pro-European, Boris Tadic, was elected Serbian president.

Kostunica has abandoned his pro-western Democratic party coalition allies in favour of an impromptu alliance with the extreme nationalist opposition, the Serbian Radical party.

Kostunica promised nothing to him. All Kostunica did was say he would oppose any measure legitimizing Kosovo's independence declaration. Clearly the EU offer does so, so Kostunica affirmed his position.

He has not abondomned them. They abondoned their campaing promises less then 5 days after being elected.

[Arthur Gordon Pym]

Serbia won\'t give up Kosovo, President Tadić says

Serbia warns EU of "cutting corners" over Kosovo

With independence looming, Kosovo to pick a flag: The province, expected to declare statehood in coming days, is also drafting a constitution and will choose an anthem.

[Monolith]

I predict a big mess in the following days. Unfortunately..

[svin]

What about parts of Kosovo still populated mostly by Serbs? Are they offered to stay in Serbia?

[M.R.]

No.

[Arthur Gordon Pym]

Originally Posted by svin

What about parts of Kosovo still populated mostly by Serbs? Are they offered to stay in Serbia?

No.

But I heard that the Declaration of Independence is supposed to contain clauses guaranteeing protection for Serbs living in Kosovo.

[Monolith]

Originally Posted by Marulus

But I heard that the Declaration of Independence is supposed to contain clauses guaranteeing protection for Serbs living in Kosovo.

I'm somewhat skeptical about that, considering the amount of animosity between Serbs and Albanians. I think that Kosovo Albanians wouldn't honor such deal.

[Arthur Gordon Pym]

Originally Posted by Monolith

I'm somewhat skeptical about that, considering the amount of animosity between Serbs and Albanians. I think that Kosovo Albanians wouldn't honor such deal.

I am aware that declarations are nowadays just worthless pieces of paper, I was just reporting what I heard/read.

Serbs have a compact enclave in North Eastern Kosovo, the fact which somehow facilitates their situation.

[Vincent]

Originally Posted by Marulus

I am aware that declarations are nowadays just worthless pieces of paper, I was just reporting what I heard/read.

Serbs have a compact enclave in North Eastern Kosovo, the fact which somehow facilitates their situation.

What about the Gorani the south?

[Arthur Gordon Pym]

Originally Posted by Hohenheim

What about the Gorani the south?

Gorani are likely to have a very tough time.

[Arthur Gordon Pym]

Serbs warn of Kosovo clash

Belgrade's leader foresees outbreaks of violence if an independence declaration is rushed through

• Daniel McLaughlin and Peter Beaumont
• The Observer,
• Sunday February 10 2008

About this article

This article appeared in the Observer on Sunday February 10 2008 on p39 of the World news section. It was last updated at 00:11 on February 10 2008.

Serbia's president Boris Tadic has made a last-ditch appeal to world leaders to retreat from a carefully orchestrated plan to recognise the independence of Kosovo from Serbia, now widely expected to take place at the end of this week.

Tadic, regarded as a moderate, warned that the expected recognition next Sunday by up to 100 countries, led by the United States, was 'cutting corners' in the middle of difficult negotiations and counselled that it threatened to reactivate old conflicts in the region and trigger new ones. He said that the only way to avoid this was to achieve a negotiated resolution supported by all parties and backed by the UN Security Council.

Instead, what seems certain is that Kosovo will declare independence unilaterally. In reply, dozens of states will recognise it in the following hours, orchestrated behind the scenes by the US to prevent Russia - Serbia's most powerful backer - going to the Security Council to block the move. Opponents of Kosovo's independence will be presented with a fait accompli.

'The alternative is a dangerous leap into the dark unknown in a time of great global turbulence,' Tadic said at a conference in Germany on Friday. 'The precedent that would be established should Serbia be partitioned against its will - which is what the imposed independence of Kosovo is, in truth - could in turn result in the escalation of many existing conflicts, the reactivation of a number of frozen conflicts and the instigation of how many new conflicts.'

His comments came as Serbia's Minister for Kosovo suggested strongly yesterday that Belgrade would seek to keep control over the Serb-populated areas in the province after its ethnic Albanian leadership declares independence. Slobodan Samardzic said in a statement that 'all should be done for the Serbs to remain on their land and live safely as citizens of Serbia'.

Critics of the plan to declare independence, which follows the failure of Serbia and the Kosovo-Albania leaders to negotiate terms for separation, have already warned of the risk that Kosovo's Serbian population, concentrated in northern Mitrovica, would respond by declaring their own independence, setting the stage for violent confrontation.

The renewed Serbian warning comes as Kosovo's leaders struggled to calm rising 'independence fever', fearful that wild celebrations from the ethnic Albanian majority could spark violent clashes with scared and furious Serbs.
Kosovo is expected to proclaim itself the world's newest state next Sunday or Monday, allowing European Union foreign ministers meeting on Monday to give the green light to a 2,000-strong mission to oversee the running of the ethnically divided region.

While Washington and most EU members will quickly welcome independent Kosovo into the world, Tadic's grim predictions of spiralling instability in the Balkans, still scarred by a bloody decade that ended with Nato bombing Serb troops out of Kosovo in 1999, will gain credence if the region's long-awaited independence celebrations give way to ethnic violence.
Kosovo's parliament is expected to meet next weekend and Hashim Thaci, the former separatist rebel who is now Kosovo's Prime Minister, or President Fatmir Sejdiu is likely to announce independence on Sunday or Monday morning, preventing Russia from immediately responding through the Security Council, six hours behind in New York.

By the time Russia can muster an emergency meeting of the council, the US and major EU nations will have drawn its diplomatic sting by recognising the sovereignty of Kosovo's two million citizens. 'We have the confirmation from some 100 states which say they are ready to recognise Kosovo's independence immediately after we declare it,' Thaci insisted last week after Serbia said that it expected a declaration on 17 February.

The announcement will prompt a huge public outpouring of joy and relief from Kosovo's 1.9 million Albanians, who lost 10,000 people in Slobodan Milosevic's brutal 1998-99 crackdown on separatist rebels and have endured a limbo-like existence ever since, unwilling to be ruled by Belgrade but prevented from running their own affairs.

Kosovo's fledgling symphony orchestra is tuning up for a gala concert whose date is still unknown, while some see a heavy hint in plans to open an independence exhibition next Sunday in Pristina, the shabby capital city that is being spruced up for a party and firework display that will cost at least €1m (£750,000).

For the region's 100,000 Serbs, however, independence day will be one of fear and uncertainty. Some are expected to abandon their isolated enclaves and head north towards Serbia itself - an exodus that could trigger violence in a Kosovo still awash with weapons and revelling in triumphant pride at its final freedom from Belgrade. 'The date of decision for declaration of independence of Kosovo [should] really be a day of dignified celebrations,' Thaci said.

Kosovo's 17,000-strong Nato peacekeeping force, along with thousands more UN and local police, are being deployed prominently ahead of a declaration to neutralise the threat of clashes and to deter armed paramilitary groups on both sides from attacking the opposing community.
But in Kosovo's superheated atmosphere, even increased security measures only exacerbate Serb feelings of insecurity. 'In all Serb communities here there is fear and concern and negative expectations,' said Kosovo Serb politician Oliver Ivanovic.

'The international police force is reinforcing, but that makes Serbs nervous. It reminds them of the bad times,' he said, referring to ethnic riots in 2004 and reprisal attacks by Albanian gangs that drove thousands of Serbs and Roma from Kosovo in 1999.

[source]

[Arthur Gordon Pym]

Russia says Europe risks "Pandora\'s box" in Kosovo

[Arthur Gordon Pym]

Kosovo split - new Cold War with Russia?

No Blows Likely Over Kosovo Split, but Chill Between Russia and West Seen Deepening

[Crvena zvezda]

Originally Posted by Marulus

No.

But I heard that the Declaration of Independence is supposed to contain clauses guaranteeing protection for Serbs living in Kosovo.

Such assurances were made since 1999. After NATO's 50,000 troops did nothing (also note that it is more then Serbia ever had in Kosovo), does assurances were reiterated constantly. And basically nothing promised happenned since Albanians didn't care for what they promised/assured.

Originally Posted by Hohenheim

What about the Gorani the south?

They'll be driven out of kosovo. They'll either go to Serbia or FYROM.

But they'll have a hard time. According to some reports their population now hovers around 6,000 -- down from some 20,000+ in 1999.

Originally Posted by svin

What about parts of Kosovo still populated mostly by Serbs? Are they offered to stay in Serbia?

Basically. These map show the demographic picture from 1999-2004 (the 2004 applies to this day).



The northern compact area contains some 30%-50% of Serbs remaining in Kosovo. The southern compact area bordering FYROM contains some 10-15%. The rest is in the other enclaves. None of the areas are being offered to Serbia.

Personally. If the province was being partitioned I'd want the north and all sections bordering Serbia where Serbs live to go to Serbia.

When it comes to the southern area (i.e. Strpce). I would want it to go to FYROM along with Gora (the most southern area of kosovo inhabited by the Gorani).