What does the future of Bosnia look like?

[Crvena zvezda]

My prediction is that whether or not Kosovo get's independence, Bosnia has no future as a unified state. My prediction is that it will be split along the following lines.
- Republika Srpska will become an indepednent state but it will be somewhat expanded. Mainly it will likely include Brcko and parts of the federation around Brcko to increase the piece of land connecting the western regions to Serbia. It will also likely include some territories in the Federation where Serbs still are a majority and Serb villages near the inter-entity border.
- The region of Cazinska Krajina (Muslim region in northwest Bosnia) will go to either Serbs or Croats. However nothing is 100% certain. Likely it will go to Serbs just because of certain concessions they will make.
- Croatia will get the main region in the west, parts of central Bosnia easily connectable to the main Croat region and the region in the north east where they are a majority.
- The Bosniaks will get a small state around Sarajevo around half the size of Slovenia. Bosniaks will then create a sultanate .
- In order to secure Cazinska Serbs will do several things. Try to woo Montenegro by giving Hercegovina to Montenegro (decreasing Srpska's size). Then insist in any agreement that Prevlaka be handed over to Montenegro and that a piece of land of Croatia's Dubrovnik-Neum county going 15km into Croatia from Prevlaka and to the Bosnia/Croatia border within these confines go to Montenegro.
- Croats will then have one state.
- Republika Srpska will not become part of Serbia instead Serb nationalists will insists on the creation of a union/confederation of independent states (loose federation linking all three) under which all three would restore their monarchies (Montenegro would get a Njegos descendant, Serbia a Karadjordjevic and Srpska also a Karadjordjevic but not the one in Serbia).


- 2006 ethnic composition

[Marulus]

Anyone of sane mind and perception knows that this "country" is no country at all and that it has no future as unified state. No-one wants it in its present state, Bosniaks included. The prevision outlined in the introductory post seems highly likely to come true.

[Theobald]

Either your previsions or Bosnian Muslim population will be growing, and Muslims will be a majority in most regions of the modern state of Bosnia... Aren't they already majoritary there anyway ? Seems more likely to me, unfortunately.

[Marulus]

Originally Posted by Theobald

Aren't they already majoritary there anyway?

They aren't majority in the whole Bosnia, they make out about 40% of the country's population and there are purely Croatian and purely Serbians regions in Bosnia, where no Bosniak-Muslims live.

And their birthrates aren't too high.

[Ostrogorski]

Muslims are becoming a extinct "species" there...one more war for them,and they will be wiped out from the face of the earth...they already live,only in 3 major cities - Sarajevo,Zenica and Tuzla...with Bihac of course!

I can't say,I'm feeling sorry for them...they wanted to create a Muslim fundamentalist state,in the heart of Europe,and luckily they were wrong!

[Crvena zvezda]

Originally Posted by Theobald

Either your previsions or Bosnian Muslim population will be growing, and Muslims will be a majority in most regions of the modern state of Bosnia... Aren't they already majoritary there anyway ? Seems more likely to me, unfortunately.

Their birth rates aren;t like Albanians or Arabs in the middle east, they don't have 6+ kids. They usually have 2 or 3. Plus, given that alot of Bosnian Serbs live in Serbia and Bosnian Croats in Croatia if these two countries became really worrried about their population in Bosnia they could just send them back.

[Crvena zvezda]

A division is the best option. It prevents further problems since in the end it will give each group it's own state. Serbs will have their union of three states, Bosniaks can form their Jamahariya, and Croats will have their state.

[Hrvoje]

Ne slažem se nužno, al zanimljivo.

Dis 291-podlistak

[Crvena zvezda]

Originally Posted by Hrvoje

Ne slažem se nužno, al zanimljivo.

Dis 291-podlistak

Interesting but I don't think it will work. One the most Serb populated regions have been in northern bosnia and farther from the border, I think they'd oppose becoming part of Croatia. Also it seems to be based on former demographics any future division of Bosnia would most likely be based on current demographics and take a few adjustments largely to the detriment of the Bosniaks. The west will try to deny this but their is one fact Bosnia has no future as a unified state.

[Theobald]

Originally Posted by Hrvoje

Dis 291-podlistak

Translation please ?

[Crvena zvezda]

Originally Posted by Theobald

Translation please ?

I will put a full translation, when I have time (probably tomorrow). But basically this is how it would divide it (middle muslim, east serb, west croat). It also calls for population exchanges. 268,000 Croats to Croat land, 282,000 Serbs to Serb land and 364,000 Muslims to Muslim land. It also lists several stages and steps. I do not endorse this plan, I prefer my proposal since it would cause fewer further population exchanges.

[Vincent]

Originally Posted by Crvena zvezda

Their birth rates aren;t like Albanians or Arabs in the middle east, they don't have 6+ kids. They usually have 2 or 3. Plus, given that alot of Bosnian Serbs live in Serbia and Bosnian Croats in Croatia if these two countries became really worrried about their population in Bosnia they could just send them back.

I am an only-child.

Originally Posted by Sektor

Muslims are becoming a extinct "species" there...one more war for them,and they will be wiped out from the face of the earth...they already live,only in 3 major cities - Sarajevo,Zenica and Tuzla...with Bihac of course!

I can't say,I'm feeling sorry for them...they wanted to create a Muslim fundamentalist state,in the heart of Europe,and luckily they were wrong!

Have you ever been in a war? I have. In Sarajevo. There is nothing good about it. I don't want 4 more years to suffer (though now I would suffer on the battlefield, as I'm not a child naymore)

[Thief of always]

Originally Posted by Sektor

Muslims are becoming a extinct "species" there...one more war for them,and they will be wiped out from the face of the earth...

Produ, do you read this? You are an extinct specie. What are you going to do with that?

[Vincent]

Originally Posted by Ed Gein

Produ, do you read this? You are an extinct specie. What are you going to do with that?

Keep being an adult that knows that only children and idiots think that wars are usefull and "cool".

[Ostrogorski]

Originally Posted by ProduSlav

Have you ever been in a war? I have. In Sarajevo. There is nothing good about it. I don't want 4 more years to suffer (though now I would suffer on the battlefield, as I'm not a child naymore)

and what do you expect???sympathy???blame rahmetli Alija for that,not me!!!

as for war,I never said that war is good,you missed my point...I just said that,if any new war breaks up,between the Serbs and the Muslims,Muslims will be wiped out...and that's not something I want,it's just reality!

[Zrinski]

First of all your prediction is very much unlikely. I predict that Bosnia-Herzegovina will remain whole just because this is what the international community wants and what they will enforce. The current status quo suits them just fine.

The most likely outcome is that there will be an internal reorganization. Something like formation of six region, two Serbian, two Croatian and two Muslim.

The Serbian will be: Eastern Bosnia-Herzegovina and Banja Luka region (along with the counties now in "Federation of BiH" such as Grahovo and Drvar). The Croatian will be: West Bosnia-Herzegovina and Posavina (expanded with "Republika Srpska" area of Bosanski Brod, Bosanski Šamac and Derventa).
The Muslim will be: Central Bosnia (plus Sarejvo-Goražde area) and Cazinska Krajina/Bihać area.

The entities will most likely remain as supra-administrative regions so the two Serbian region will remain in "Repulika Srpska" (though the name will most likely be changed because "Republika" implies something it is not) and the Croatian and Muslim regions will be the other entity. Bosnia and Herzegovina will be formed as a Federative state.

Also a small remark about one of your predictions...I just don't see the base for Serbian demand of Cazinska Krajina. This is by majority Muslim populated area, but many Croats live here. Also most Muslims in this region are actually very much pro-Croatian. Not to mention that historically this was part of Croatia. The city of Bihać was even the capital of Croatia for some time.

Edit:

This is what I mean by regions, it is modified ethnic map. The colors still represent the same ethnic groups but they do not show ethnic composition but territory under the control of those ethnic groups.