Beyond Politics: The Terrorism Threat in Germany

[Strengthandhonour]

Beyond Politics: The Terrorism Threat in Germany
July 30, 2007 18 27 GMT
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the weekly news magazine Stern in an interview published July 26 that the terrorist threat against Germany should not be exaggerated. "Germany has not explicitly been named as a new target," he said, implying that his colleagues in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Cabinet are playing up the threat level. In particular, Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has released several public statements emphasizing the looming threat of terrorism in Germany.

Steinmeier's comments highlight the divisions between Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), both members of the ruling coalition. Schaeuble belongs to the CDU, which is in the process of trying to expand existing anti-terrorism measures to include a penalty for training in terrorist camps and for distributing bombmaking manuals. Steinmeier, on the other hand, is SPD, and some of that party's members and human rights activists say the proposed measures could infringe on civil liberties in Germany.

Citing increased threats to further a political agenda is not unique to Germany. In fact, to help justify continuing the war in Iraq, the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush recently released a report asserting that al Qaeda has reconstituted itself. Then, on July 24, Bush himself said, "Those who justify withdrawing our troops from Iraq by denying the threat of al Qaeda in Iraq and its ties to Osama bin Laden ignore the clear consequences of such a retreat." Unlike the United States, however, Germany has refrained from lumping all potential terrorists under the al Qaeda name.

Regardless of the political backdrop, the warnings issued by the United States and Germany during the past five months should not be ignored. Five warnings from or about Germany have been issued concerning the terrorist threat in the country since March -- one per month -- though none cited specific information or evidence. The first warning came in the form of a Warden Message from the U.S. Embassy in Berlin on March 16. It advised U.S. citizens of the ongoing threat of terrorist activity against Americans and other U.S. interests in Germany.

Another Warden Message issued April 20 addressed a nonspecific security threat in Germany and said U.S. military facilities within Germany had increased their security. Spiegel Online, citing sources in "security circles," reported that American intelligence officials had alerted their German counterparts to the movements of Ansar al-Sunnah members who apparently were attempting to survey U.S. installations in southern Germany. Spiegel also said U.S. officials had received intelligence regarding plans for an attack in the country. Then, on May 11, Schaeuble said Germany had become a target of Islamist terrorism rather than a base of operations for militant Islamists, as was seen with the Hamburg cell prior to 9/11.

Details surrounding the threats have become more specific in the past couple of months. On June 22, the Interior Ministry said there were signs that terrorist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan have gained strength and could be capable of acting. The ministry also said it had "information that persons from Europe, including Germany, are involved in these structures." Schaeuble called the threat "serious," but said the danger itself was not qualitatively new. Deputy Interior Minister August Hanning, however, said the situation was reminiscent of that in the summer of 2001, before the 9/11 attacks. "We see there are active structures at work again," he was quoted as saying. "We received evidence that actions are planned in the region, but also in Europe and the U.S." German authorities also said in June they were aware of 10 German citizens who had attended training camps in Pakistan, based on evidence derived from a suicide bombers' "graduation" video shot at one of the camps. Pakistani authorities arrested three men with German backgrounds, two of them carrying German passports, as they tried to leave Pakistan.

Schaeuble issued the latest warning just over a week ago, telling the newspaper B.Z. am Sonntag in remarks published July 21 that concrete indications suggest international terrorist elements have Germany in their sights. The threat includes indications that suicide bombers could attempt to attack Germany and German institutions abroad, he said. The weekly Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, citing Hanning, reported July 22 that some German Islamists who had trained in camps in Pakistan had re-entered Germany a few weeks earlier, and that they could be planning attacks within the country. Hanning said, "This is a new, specific threat and is a cause for concern. There is a new quality in the threat to Germany."

The most significant concern is the whereabouts of those Germans the Interior Ministry believes trained in Pakistan. In fact, uncertainty about their status might have prompted the July warnings. Despite political maneuverings, the warnings and indications of an increased terrorism threat in Germany over the past five months are likely based on some viable intelligence -- even if the threat has been exaggerated. As the August 2006 attempted train bombings demonstrated, there already are some radical Muslims in Germany (as elsewhere in Europe) who aim to conduct attacks. If some of these militants have come out of training camps in places such as Pakistan or Iraq, they could have the capacity to cause real damage.



source: http://www.stratfor.com/products/pre...ected=Analyses