Morning Headache for the Dutch

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Morning Headache for the Dutch

Dutchnews.nl
November 23, 2006

Dutch politics is in confusion today following mixed signals from voters in yesterday’s general election. No two parties can form a majority government and the formation of a coalition cabinet is going to be difficult and complicated.

The bigger than expected gains for both the ‘extreme’ left Socialist Party (SP) and Geert Wilders’ ‘extreme’ right-wing anti-immigrant Party for Freedom (PVV) have added to what many political commentators and politicians are describing as a chaotic situation.

While all three major parties – Christian Democrats, Labour (PvdA) and the free market Liberals (VVD) – lost support, the CDA has emerged as the biggest party for the third time in a row. At the same time, analysts agree that an overall shift to the left indicates dissatisfaction with the policies of the outgoing CDA/VVD coalition.

On top of this, both the right and left wing flanks have become fragmented. On the right, the spectacular nine seats won by the new PVV means Wilders is insisting on political recognition.

But the flamboyant leader was already accusing his political colleagues of a creating a ‘cordon sanitaire’ around his party during the tv debate which followed the election results last night.

Meanwhile the tripling of the SP vote has splintered the left wing of the political spectrum. And the SP is not considered an easy bedfellow when it comes to forming a coalition.


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Stable Coalition Impossible in The Netherlands

NIS - News Bulletin
November 24, 2006

Attempts to form a government are to start today. As the election winners, the Christian democrats (CDA) will take the initiative. A coalition between CDA, Labour (PvdA) and small Christian party ChristenUnie appears to be the most realistic outcome - at first sight.

CDA and PvdA did not win a combined majority in the 150-member Lower House in Wednesday's elections. In fact, not a single two-party majority coalition can be formed. Even most three-party coalitions are impossible - if majority support is sought.

CDA and the conservatives (VVD) would produce a combination that is 13 seats short of a 76 to 74 seats majority. A third party, like ChristenUnie with its 6 seats, cannot help them across this threshold. Theoretically, the 9 seats of Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) could be added, but ChristenUnie has ruled out PVV as a coalition partner.

The much-discussed leftwing coalition option is equally impossible. This alliance of PvdA, Socialist Party (SP) and leftwing Greens (GroenLinks) won a combined 65 seats. Here too, adding ChristenUnie would not create a majority. Added support from splinters PvdD or D66 would still be insufficient, unless both join in for an extremely unlikely six-party alliance.

Insiders expect two options will be explored. CDA could invite PvdA and ChristenUnie for talks right away. But more likely, CDA will first invite PvdA plus SP to replace ChristenUnie. The latter option would be logical under the theory that SP needs to be taken seriously based on its big wins. But it is not likely to lead to an agreement because CDA and SP are ideologically miles apart, especially in the economic area.

This makes CDA-PvdA-ChristenUnie the most likely coalition. However, PvdA leader Wouter Bos may prefer to be in opposition. He has already indicated he is not eager to govern. First, SP should play a role in the coalition formation process, in his view.

With PvdA in a government with CDA, both parties would have to make so many concessions that they are likely to lose support from their voters and lose the next election. For Bos in particular, joining the opposition would reduce the chance of SP growing even bigger in the next four years.

If PvdA decides against governing, a stalemate emerges. Supposing that CDA collaboration with SP is not possible, a minority coalition may then be considered. Then, CDA-VVD-ChristenUnie comes in sight.

Today, Queen Beatrix is to receive the leaders of the biggest parties for vis-à-vis consultations, one by one. The smaller parties are to give their views on Saturday. The Queen may appoint one or more 'informateurs' the same day, whose task it is to explore the possibilities for coalition talks and to chair these.

The formation process may take months. In March, a new Upper House will be elected and the parties may want to await the outcome. A stable coalition will in any case not emerge.


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