Dutch voters set to ignore their leaders and follow the French

[Menydh]

Dutch voters set to ignore their leaders and follow the French

Financial Times
June 1, 2005

Dutch voters look set today to ignore the advice of most of their political leaders, newspapers, businesses and trade unions and join the French in saying No to the European Union's constitutional treaty.

Opinion polls taken after the treaty's rejection by French voters on Sunday show that the Dutch No campaign has extended its lead.

Interview-NSS, in a poll for Dutch television, found 60 per cent of voters against the treaty, up from 56 per cent. TNS-NIPO meanwhile put the No vote at 51 per cent against 37 per cent Yes, with 12 per cent undecided.

"Nothing is impossible, but the chance that the Netherlands votes Yes is very small," said pollster Maurice de Hond.

Ben Bot, the Dutch foreign minister, said: "We had hoped for a neck-and-neck race [but] ... it looks as if it is going to be a No vote."

The gulf between public and political opinion in the Netherlands appears to mirror the French experience, according to opinion polls that show fewer than a fifth of the Dutch people having confidence in their government.

The eve of the referendum vote also carries echoes of events three years ago in the Netherlands, when Jan Peter Balkenende was elected prime minister. He benefited at the time from a protest vote that expelled the centre-left government of his predecessor, Wim Kok, which was seen as elitist and distant.

Mr Balkenende's Christian Democrat Alliance led a government appointed amid a wave of national angst and insecurity that had buoyed the rise of the List Pym Fortuyn party after the murder of its founder, the populist Pim Fortuyn.

After that shortlived government fell apart, Mr Balkenende won a second election and rebuilt his cabinet. This administration has weathered problems, not always of its own making, including the social turmoil caused by two murders by extremists and a deep economic recession that forced unpopular austerity measures.

But Mr Balkenende's government now stands accused of the central charge that ultimately brought down the Kok administration. De Telegraaf, the Netherlands' biggest selling national newspaper, yesterday branded the current government elitist. It wrote in an editorial that, like the Kok government, Mr Balkenende's had ignored the public, in this case by not explaining "what it was busy with in Brussels".

"Whatever the government decides next, it must lead its people better," the newspaper stated.

Mr Balkenende's CDA, the main constituent of the government coalition, did not want a referendum, which was called for by parliament.

But the government's initial reluctance to campaign for a Yes vote with anything more than a simple information campaign allowed No voters to make their arguments unopposed, building what now appears an unassailable lead.

A senior European diplomat in The Hague said that while there were parallels with France, the issues informing the Dutch No vote were different.

"The angst in France is to do with the Anglo-Saxon model, globalisation and liberalisation. Here it is about social policies and financial issues [such as the single currency]," he said.

Furthermore, Mr Balkenende's government faces an electorate that has been emboldened by recent experience, a fact on which populist politicians such as Geert Wilders, the rightwinger who is central to the No campaign, have been quick to capitalise.

Diplomats in The Hague say they are in no doubt that a slicker government campaign across a united front might have succeeded in winning support for the treaty.


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[Menydh]

Rejection could trigger wave of poll postponements

Financial Times
June 1, 2005

A Dutch No vote in tonight's referendum could triggera wave of countries calling off their own polls on the EU constitution, diplomats in Brussels believe.

Britain is certain to postpone its own poll, and its decision could lead to a rethink in other countries including the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland and Poland.

"If Britain postpones its poll, then others could follow," admitted one senior EU official. "It could all become very messy."

The issue will come to a head at an EU summit on June 16-17, with some countries including France and Germany insisting that ratification of the treaty should continue.

However a decisive Dutch No vote following the 55-45 per cent rejection of the treaty in France last Sunday will throw the future of the constitution into doubt.

President Jacques Chirac of France and Jan Peter Balkenende, Dutch prime minister, would come under pressure at the summit to explain how they intended to overturn their No votes.

They would also be told there is no question of renegotiating the text - a point stressed by Gerhard Schröder, German chancellor.

Tony Blair, Britain's prime minister, has decided that a UK referendum would be impossible until France reverses its No vote, probably by a second referendum.

That is seen as unlikely before the French presidential elections in 2007 and some believe that the constitution will never be revived.

Mr Blair will use the likely Dutch No to justify his decision to fellow EU leaders, especially if there are signs that Dutch Yes supporters were demoralised by the French rejection and failed to turn out.

"How can we mobilise a Yes campaign in Britain - let alone the Yes vote - if the treaty appears to be dead after a French and Dutch No?" asked one UK official.

Six other EU countries intend to ratify the treaty by referendum, with No votes likely to be strongest in the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland and Poland.

Each of those countries is sticking to the official EU line that the ratification should continue, as are Luxembourg and Portugal, which would be expected to vote Yes.

However even Luxembourg, home of many EU institutions, has seen a collapse in the Yes camp in recent weeks.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Danish prime minister, said yesterday he wanted a clear signal that France would not try to renegotiate the treaty, to make it more protective of its social model. "If we are going to move ahead [with the referendum] it will be about the treaty as we know it today and nothing else."

The UK government believed there were distinct differences in Dutch and French opposition to the European Union constitutional treaty that pointed to a deep schism in Europe, diplomats in the Hague said yesterday. That difference would prove decisive in determining whether Britain called off plans for a referendum on the treaty next year, said one diplomat. "The Netherlands is not another France," he said. "The Netherlands follows the British view on things like economic reform, and is generally pro-Atlanticist."

If the Netherlands voted No, "you will have two results from two different countries and it is that fact that raises profound questions [in Britain] about the future of Europe".



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[Cristoforo]

After so many years, the eurocrats are realizing that the concept of one Europe was never a real one.

You cannot create a system so vast like the EU and expect to reconcile different cultures such as the British, the French and the Germans. With the accession of the new countries this is even more difficult.

The concept of one Europe (as a United States of Europe for example) is not practical especially if one wants it to happen just 50 years after the same countries were at war. It is not even desirable to have a multi-euro-cultural state.

Imho, the way forward is the construction of a new union, a union of sovereign european states.