Sign of election gap closing as Berlusconi scores own goal

[Marcus Marulus]

Sign of election gap closing as Berlusconi scores own goal

John Hooper in Rome
The Guardian,
Saturday April 12 2008


Silvio Berlusconi at a campaign rally in Rome. Photograph: Christophe Simon/AFP/Getty Images

The centre-left leader, Walter Veltroni, launched himself into a frenetic round of last-minute interviews and engagements ahead of the general election in Italy which starts tomorrow, amid signs he might be closing in on Silvio Berlusconi.

With no polling evidence available for almost two weeks, it was difficult to gauge the public mood. But on Thursday night, the 52-year-old former mayor of Rome scored a remarkable triumph in his opponent's political heartland, packing to overflowing the cathedral square of Berlusconi's native Milan. The media mogul, who began the final leg of the campaign with a 5-9% edge, managed only a paltry turnout at the Roman Colosseum. And he used the rally to score a potentially calamitous own goal.

Rome is crucial to the contest because it could swing the vote for the senate, where the right is most vulnerable. Referring to Francesco Totti, Roma's legendary midfielder, who has said he would vote for the centre-left in local elections that are being held at the same time, Berlusconi said he was "off his head".

By last night, local fan radios were humming to the indignant protests of Roma supporters, many of them rightwingers who could be expected to vote for Berlusconi's Freedom Folk. The billionaire candidate's movement, which includes most of Italy's former neo-fascists, is vulnerable in Rome and the surrounding region to a small, far-right breakaway group.

Its candidate for prime minister is Daniela Santanchè, who has repeatedly needled Berlusconi and, this week, claimed he was obsessed with her, saying: "Anyway, I'll never give it to him."

Her movement, the Right, is not the only one that could have an impact. Freedom Folk also risk losing votes to Pier Ferdinando Casini's Union of Christian and Centre Democrats (UDC), which left the Berlusconi camp shortly before the campaign started. Veltroni's Democratic party is meanwhile vulnerable to a Marxist-Green alliance, the Rainbow Left.

To win seats in the senate in any one region, they need to win more than 8% of the vote. Political analysts say the UDC and Rainbow Left are most likely to get over the hurdle in those areas where the centre-left is expected to top the poll.

Paradoxically, that is good news for Veltroni's Democratic party. Because of the workings of the bizarre electoral system adopted by Italy three years ago, it is the party that finishes second that is most at risk of the incursions of smaller groups.

The leading candidates were due last night to feature in a non-stop succession of television interviews on Italy's seven national channels.
Berlusconi has dodged demands for face-to-face debates with Veltroni, of the sort that electrified Italy's last election campaign in 2006, when his opponent was the former European commission president, Romano Prodi. As frontrunner, he was unwilling to let Veltroni get on equal terms. But the lack of a televised clash has also boosted speculation that neither main contender wanted to prejudice a cross-party deal after the election if, for example, Italy was left with a hung parliament. The electoral law produces a clear outcome in the lower house, the chamber of deputies. But it makes a close finish highly likely in the senate.

[source]