End of the road for Romano Prodi

[AzzurroItalia]

Hopefully, anyway.

In the last couple of weeks, the tension between the center-left partners of the Unione coalition has been increasing, and it may lead to the coalition's implosion just this week.

I'm sure most of you have heard of the Naples trash crisis, where thanks to Italy's incompetent Environmental Minister, Pecoraro Scanio, (who has opposed new incinerators for the region) the trash is piling up, and the region suffers in international embarrassment.

He is to face a vote of no-confidence on Wednesday, and judging by attitudes around the leftist coalition, it may be the one opportunity to finally bring down this abhorrent government. The political scene has really been moving, with Berlusconi and Veltroni (leaders of the center-right and center-left's largest parties, respectively) discussing possible electoral laws, which has met resistance from both sides of the spectrum. At the same time, other political groups are pressing for an upcoming referendum on the electoral law, which would make Italy a de-factor biparty system, like the USA. That's why the whole debate exists on the new electoral law, in an effort to thwart the referendum.

Meanwhile, Justice Minister Clemente Mastella's wife has been arrested on corruption charges, causing the former to resign (and regardless, he has been questioned as well now), The ruling coalition is in uproar over whether to approve a draft legislation supporting Mastella against the judiciary. Mastella's UDEUR party threatens the government's collapse over it, and the smaller IDV ("Italia dei Valori") party attacks him and threatens the government itself.

Not everyone is supporting Scanio in his no-confidence motion - some senators have promised to vote against the minister regardless of the government's preference. UDEUR has called for Pecoraro Scanio to simply resign now before the vote. And of course, Veltroni and his "Democratic Party" have declared their intention to run on their own in the next general elections, urging Berlusconi to do the exact same thing.

This is going to be one of the most difficult weeks Prodi has ever faced. The whole coalition is in pieces (though in truth, both are). Hopefully this government's end has finally come, perhaps Italy can finally move towards an elections and free itself from the current political crisis.

Whatever happens - Romano Prodi's resignation is way overdue.

[NatVox]

Originally Posted by AzzurroItalia

At the same time, other political groups are pressing for an upcoming referendum on the electoral law, which would make Italy a de-factor biparty system, like the USA. That's why the whole debate exists on the new electoral law, in an effort to thwart the referendum.

Which groups would these be?

[Savorgnan]

Originally Posted by Mynydd

Which groups would these be?

Casa delle Libertà (CdL) and a new Center-Left "Democratic" party, cleaned of the old stalinists of Rifondazione Comunista like Fausto Bertinotti and friends?

[AzzurroItalia]

Originally Posted by Savorgnan

Casa delle Libertà (CdL) and a new Center-Left "Democratic" party, cleaned of the old stalinists of Rifondazione Comunista like Fausto Bertinotti and friends?

Well, that's not entirely correct.

The Casa delle Libertà is entirely split on the referendum. The UDC (a small Catholic centrist party), Forza Italia, and the Lega Nord are all opposed to the referendum (as is 'supposedly' most of the center-left), while Gianfranco Fini's Alleanza Nazionale is for it. The biggest movers for the referendum are some politicians within the Democratic Party, AN, Italia dei Valori (though I'm not entirely sure), and some government officials like Parisi, the defense minister.

It's a really divisive issue, a lot of discontented voters are pouring for the referendum simply to smack the political establishment. That's why the scramble to reform the electoral law has gotten so crazy now. The smaller parties, if they are not satisfied with either the referendum (which they are not), or the "compromise" bill between Forza Italia and the Democratic Party (which is referred to the "small party assassin"), they are likely to pull the plug on the government to cancel the referendum, and force a vote with the current law.

But Veltroni I think may also simply want to exercise his muscles. He had a lot of popularity when he was first declared the Democratic chief, but lately, it's been scraped away along with the decreasing faith in the government from among the electorate. I think he may be interested in pulling the plug in order to not "burn himself out" before 2011, the scheduled election date. And this of course interests Berlusconi in the opposition as well, as he gets one last chance to run for office.

[AzzurroItalia]

The crisis worsens:

The UDEUR party which I spoke of has just announced its complete withdrawal of support from the government, which could be fatal if he is consistent. He claims to have sent a letter explaining it.

Mastella, lasciamo maggioranza
No anche ad appoggio esterno al governo
(ANSA) - ROMA, 21 GEN - 'Lasciamo la maggioranza, e' finita un'esperienza'.Lo afferma Mastella nella conferenza stampa dopo l'ufficio politico dell'Udeur. Mastella ha quindi risposto con un 'no' quando gli e' stato chiesto se l'Udeur dara' l'appoggio esterno al governo. L'ex Guardasigilli ha riferito di aver gia' comunicato questo orientamento al presidente del Consiglio Romano Prodi con una lettera.

Mastella: "we're leaving the majority"
No to outside support of the government.

- "We're leaving the majority, an experience has finished" affirms Mastella in a press conference next to the political office of the UDEUR. Mastella has thus responded with a "no" qhen he was asked if Udeur would give outside support to the government. The ex-justice minister refers to have already communicated this to the Prime Minister Romano Prodi with a letter.

Now, usually I am skeptical about it (as I am now), for this guy is never consistent with anything he says. However, these are grave words to say...especially at this point with such a high crisis in the air.

[Kernunnos]

This time should be over forever. Mastella had been touched too much.


The abuses his wife was accused of are more than common in his region, not only, surprisingly the very same prosecutors never touched any of the politicians and state civil servants that were involved in the crisis.


This probably because the crisis is due to the overpowering camorra influence over neapolitan politics: waste mustn't be legally incinerated since it is camorra that must gain from illegal waste disposal.

It has been long known that camorra is involved in ilegal dumping of toxic waste, a criminal business that fruits millions.

Naples regional authorities never found a day to write down any act related to waste disposal that would be normal elsewhere, again due to camorra's orders.

Despite this, judges in Naples never found a motivation to wiretape regional offices and politicians to see if something was wrong, while Mastella's wife's crimes are just "ordinary" rigging of important civil servants nominations.

So Mastella felt singled out for obscure political designs, most notably the destruction of small parties to make room to a real "american bipolarism" as wanted by influential circles.

Most likely the circles behind the powerful newspaper "Corriere della Sera", the real leaders of the italian political scene.

So they could give the enraged italian public a rascal to hang while reordering things according to their new designs.

[NatVox]

Bravo, Breha. I thought that the whole affair might have been pushed forward with the intention of forcing bipolarization in the political arena. If not in its starting stages, at least at later ones. The link that I was missing in my scheme was the Camorra.

[Kernunnos]

Originally Posted by Mynydd

Bravo, Breha. I thought that the whole affair might have been pushed forward with the intention of forcing bipolarization in the political arena. If not in its starting stages, at least at later ones. The link that I was missing in my scheme was the Camorra.

Well, the illegal waste disposal business was already a source for investigation during the first "Clean hands" series of investigations.

However nothing serious came really up, even if anybody knowing something of the italian political life from inside, including me, could know it well ....

[AzzurroItalia]

Mastella wants to be Samson. Knowing that he has permanently now lost his prestigious ministry in the government, he will bring the whole administration down with him. I assure you, had Mastella still had his Justice Ministry, he wouldn't have dared caused the government crisis.

With the referendum coming, it remains to be seen whether Mastella can return to the fold, or will honor his threat to formally bring the government into crisis. Of course, I'm hoping, but I'm also very fearful. Prodi is most certainly not stupid, and his calling for a verification is his way of buying as much time as possible - perhaps to strike a deal with senators or parties on something like the electoral law.

For instance, he may offer the UDC the government's complete support on an electoral law German-style (with alliances formed after the election), and in return, Thursday, the UDC may be conveniently have some senators missing for the vote of confidence, thereby ensuring the government's survival. Or perhaps one that inflates regional representation, assuring Mastella a place in parliament. Either way, it's like a market, and Prodi wants votes.

To be honest, I'm terrified. Terrified that Prodi successfully buys senators that would support the government. He would never be ashamed of doing such a deed, no matter how underhanded it is. We'll have to wait and see...

Currently, assuming everything goes as predicted, Prodi should be only be able to count on at most 160 senators against the opposition's 160 (officially 'rejecting' the confidence vote). That is, his 158 - 3 Udeur senators (155), - Turigliatto, a Communist senator, bringing it down to 154. Adding to that at six life senators that always support Prodi (the last, Pinifarina would never - I hope - vote to aid Prodi, he has not to date), the total should be 160. The center-right, however, has its 156, + Turigliatto (157), + 3 Udeur senators, and that should be 160-160.

The government also may have difficulties with Fisichella, 3 "diniani", and Rossi, though the latter almost always supports the government, and I don't believe the first four are intentioned at all to let the government fall, no matter what they've declared to date.

But I expect some kind of surprise to aid Prodi at the last second, and that infuriates me. Perhaps I'm too pessimistic. What do you think, Breha?

[AzzurroItalia]

According to the latest news, Prodi seems to be in even greater danger.

Prodi has lost another two critical senators, Fisichella and Pallaro, reducing the number of elected government senators to 152.

Fisichella has outright declared that he will vote against the government, no matter what (Prodi had been attempting to secure his vote).

Pallaro, for some unspecified reason, will not be present to vote tomorrow in the Senate. Therefore, after these two calculations, the opposition has gained one vote, and the Unione lost two.

The way things are going, not even all 7 life senators could save Prodi now.

Today he went up to the presidential palace to speak with the President Giorgio Napolitano. He is reflecting on whether to resign before the vote in the Senate, or ride it out. In any case, he will wait until after the vote-of-confidence in the Chamber of Deputies, where Prodi holds a comfortable majority.

[Kernunnos]

Originally Posted by AzzurroItalia

According to the latest news, Prodi seems to be in even greater danger.

Prodi has lost another two critical senators, Fisichella and Pallaro, reducing the number of elected government senators to 152.

Fisichella has outright declared that he will vote against the government, no matter what (Prodi had been attempting to secure his vote).

Pallaro, for some unspecified reason, will not be present to vote tomorrow in the Senate. Therefore, after these two calculations, the opposition has gained one vote, and the Unione lost two.

The way things are going, not even all 7 life senators could save Prodi now.

Today he went up to the presidential palace to speak with the President Giorgio Napolitano. He is reflecting on whether to resign before the vote in the Senate, or ride it out. In any case, he will wait until after the vote-of-confidence in the Chamber of Deputies, where Prodi holds a comfortable majority.

There is still the quorum problem. ... maybe we will see him gone by tomorrow night, I hope.

but no elections will be permitted by comrade Napolitano, the commie "President" of our stellar banana republic.

He will concoct an unelected interim "technical" government that will do what the most powerful economic power circles exactly want.

[AzzurroItalia]

Originally Posted by Breha

There is still the quorum problem. ... maybe we will see him gone by tomorrow night, I hope.

but no elections will be permitted by comrade Napolitano, the commie "President" of our stellar banana republic.

He will concoct an unelected interim "technical" government that will do what the most powerful economic power circles exactly want.

Ah, sweet words in my ears. Someone opposed to the Prodi government! It's been so long since I've heard such voices here on the net....

Anyways, it looks like Dini withdrew his support too, which is two senators less for Prodi. But I still don't trust him, he could turn back and support Prodi. He probably figured that Prodi would have resigned tonight, which is why he announced it. The clown.

Anyway, a technocrat government requires a lot of support. Although I'm certain that's what Napolitano would prefer, if Prodi goes ahead with the vote-of-confidence tomorrow and fails, he will not get the support needed. Casini already stated (I don't trust him either, but...) that he would support the idea only if Prodi did not go ahead with the confidence vote, otherwise there could only be new elections. And without Forza Italia's backing of a technocrat government, I'm not sure if Casini would lend a hand.

On the other hand, Napolitano could try to cobble one out of the same Unione coalition, though I hope he is not that stupid.

The only solution in my book would be to let there be elections, and no matter the result, then there can be dialogue on a new electoral law, for as it is now, there can be no reform whatsoever.

[Kernunnos]

Originally Posted by AzzurroItalia

Ah, sweet words in my ears. Someone opposed to the Prodi government! It's been so long since I've heard such voices here on the net....

Anyways, it looks like Dini withdrew his support too, which is two senators less for Prodi. But I still don't trust him, he could turn back and support Prodi. He probably figured that Prodi would have resigned tonight, which is why he announced it. The clown.

Anyway, a technocrat government requires a lot of support. Although I'm certain that's what Napolitano would prefer, if Prodi goes ahead with the vote-of-confidence tomorrow and fails, he will not get the support needed. Casini already stated (I don't trust him either, but...) that he would support the idea only if Prodi did not go ahead with the confidence vote, otherwise there could only be new elections. And without Forza Italia's backing of a technocrat government, I'm not sure if Casini would lend a hand.

On the other hand, Napolitano could try to cobble one out of the same Unione coalition, though I hope he is not that stupid.

The only solution in my book would be to let there be elections, and no matter the result, then there can be dialogue on a new electoral law, for as it is now, there can be no reform whatsoever.

Carissimo,

you won't find here many people who like socialism and citizenship for africans, or free immigration, not to say immigration at all.

This is a safe haven for patriots and sensed european who love themselevs, their countries, their culture and their folk.

Be welcome here.

And, yes, they have just communicated that prodi lost the no-confidence vote in senate: THE DUNCE IS DEAD !

[Strengthandhonour]

I just got in from the university.
Watching the news and I just saw his fall.
I am very happy to see Prodi leave..terrible choice for the people that he got elected.

[AzzurroItalia]

Originally Posted by Breha

Carissimo,

you won't find here many people who like socialism and citizenship for africans, or free immigration, not to say immigration at all.

This is a safe haven for patriots and sensed european who love themselevs, their countries, their culture and their folk.

Be welcome here.

And, yes, they have just communicated that prodi lost the no-confidence vote in senate: THE DUNCE IS DEAD !

Truly amazing.

I was at work when I called my father, anxiously wanting to know.

As soon as he told me, I began exhulting in triumph all over the store.

Interestingly, I met an Italian woman who was chuckling at my celebration, thinking it was cute, and I began talking to her. It was funny.

It's finally over!