Serbs choosing course in watershed election

[Marulus]

Serbs choosing course in watershed election

By Ellie Tzortzi Sat Jan 19, 2008

BELGRADE (Reuters) - Pro-Western president Boris Tadic and hardline challenger Tomislav Nikolic vie in elections on Sunday that will decide who drives Serbia's response to the trauma of the expected breakaway of its Kosovo region.

Opinion polls ahead of a first-round ballot gave Nikolic a slim lead over Tadic, but not enough for a knockout victory.

The winner of the February 3 run-off will be the candidate who can attract third-party votes with promises of better living standards, jobs and the defense of Kosovo, heading for independence with Western backing within months.

Tadic says the way to handle all that is through closer ties with the West. He opposes independence of Kosovo, seen by Serbs as their historic heartland, but favors signing a first-level agreement with the European Union even if the bloc takes over Kosovo's supervision as a prelude to recognizing the territory.

Nikolic, whose Radical Party supported the policies of late autocrat Slobodan Milosevic in the war-torn 1990s, puts his money on Russia.

"There is a risk of the return of the old guard that led Serbia into conflicts and isolation during the 1990s and led people into turmoil and uncertainty," Tadic said of a Nikolic victory.

"But I am certain the people will not allow this, they will vote for stability and economic progress, for a better life for their families."

UN PROTECTORATE

Nikolic, who has toned down his rhetoric to appeal to moderates as well as the one third of Serbs who live just over the poverty line, has rejected accusations of isolationism and war-mongering.

"I have not said goodbye to the West," he told a rally this week. "I said we could be with you, and that we can sign whatever you want, but do not touch Serbia.

"Serbia has its borders."

Kosovo has been a United Nations protectorate since 1999, when NATO expelled Serb troops accused of atrocities against ethnic Albanians there while fighting a guerrilla war.

Indications by the U.S. and most EU member states that they will recognize Kosovo as independent within months have irked Serbs who feel the country has paid enough for its role in the wars of the 1990s, and could win nationalists more votes.

Polls suggest Nikolic will win 33 percent of the first-round vote, with Tadic around 30 percent.

Three others are seen winning about six percent each. They include the only candidate, Cedomir Jovanovic, prepared to tell Serbs Kosovo is lost and the country should move on.

Half of the 6.5 million electorate may stay home, reflecting disappointment with democratic politics 7 years after the fall of Milosevic took Serbia out of isolation and into a bumpy transition.

Apart from Kosovo, the country also faces the challenge of fulfilling its obligations to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague by arresting ethnic Serb war crime suspects from the Yugoslav wars.

The EU has said Belgrade will be welcome as an EU candidate once it has shown it can face up to its past by arresting the men accused of atrocities, who are believed to be hiding in Serbia with the help of hardliners.

(Editing by Ralph Boulton)

[source]

[Ostrogorski]

Opinion polls ahead of a first-round ballot gave Nikolic a slim lead over Tadic, but not enough for a knockout victory.

Well, if that's what someone called Ellie Tzortzi said then it must be truth

[Ostrogorski]

Nationalist Nikolic wins first-round presidential vote


Belgrade - Serbian ultra-nationalist leader Tomislav Nikolic would lead the pro-European incumbent Boris Tadic into the presidential election run-off on February 3 after winning the most votes in the first-round vote Sunday.
According to early, unofficial figures, Nikolic won 39.4 per cent of ballots cast amid record turnout in a Serbian presidential election of more than 60 per cent, the private Centre for Free and Democratic Elections (Cesid) said.
The same, normally reliable source, said that Tadic collected 35.4 per cent of the vote. None of the remaining seven candidates broke 8 per cent, according to Cesid.
In absolute figures, Nikolic's lead boils down to some 150,000 votes in an electorate of 6.7 million people. The second round may be close or even closer, said Cesid chief analyst Zoran Lucic.
The looming independence of Serbia's province Kosovo has dominated recent campaigning and may play an even larger role in the two weeks until the runoff.
US and most EU states have backed the majority Kosovo Albanians' bid for independence, and the EU is to decide on sending a law- enforcement mission to help the fledgling state's first sovereign steps.
Nikolic says he wants to freeze relations with any country supporting an independent Kosovo, while Tadic, somewhat awkwardly, says that Kosovo must not be tied to Serbia's progress toward EU membership.
The position of the majority in Serbia regarding its ties with the EU and the West would reflect on the final outcome of the election for the office, which carries little real authority.
Pollsters said even before Sunday's election that the key is in the hands of conservative Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica - who is in an uneasy coalition with Tadic's Democratic Party but is politically closer to Nikolic's Serbian Radical Party.
Kostunica is estimated to have command over some 300,000 votes, enough to tip the scales come February 3. He has so far refused to endorse either Nikolic or Tadic and may even remain outwardly undecided.
Tadic already defeated Nikolic in the run for the five-year term in 2004, also after trailing in the first round. The presidential election was called a year early because Serbia adopted a new constitution in 2006.
This time, Tadic may have a harder time mobilizing enough support for a turnaround, observers said, hours after Sunday's vote ended.

Source:

Nationalist Nikolic wins first-round presidential vote - Europe

[Marulus]

Serbian election heading to runoff

Serbia\'s presidential candidates - Yahoo! News

[wilpuri]

Is this good news?

[Marulus]

Nothing has been decided as yet, Tadić might win as well.

Originally Posted by wilpuri

Is this good news?

In which sense do you mean good or bad?

[Rex Chroatorum]

Originally Posted by wilpuri

Is this good news?

I will just say that Nikolic whants Serbian border on Virovitica-Karlovac-Karlobag line(part of Croatian teritory), unification of Republika Srpska(part of Bosnia) with Serbia and send a army on Kosovo, so if he become Serbian president we can expect problems in Balkan region

[wilpuri]

Originally Posted by Marulus

Nothing has been decided as yet, Tadić might win as well.



In which sense do you mean good or bad?

I mean, which is the lesser evil? If Nikolic is an old-fashioned hardliner, it hardly promises any improvement to Serbia and the region as a whole, nor for nationalism in Europe, as a whole.

[Marulus]

Originally Posted by wilpuri

I mean, which is the lesser evil?

That is up to Serbs to decide.

Originally Posted by wilpuri

If Nikolic is an old-fashioned hardliner, it hardly promises any improvement to Serbia and the region as a whole, nor for nationalism in Europe, as a whole.

Sincerely speaking, I don't know how hard-line Nikolić is, he has some anti-EU and anti-NATO attitudes though (which I see as something positive, of course).

Originally Posted by Rex Chroatorum

I will just say that Nikolic whants Serbian border on Virovitica-Karlovac-Karlobag line(part of Croatian teritory), unification of Republika Srpska(part of Bosnia) with Serbia and send a army on Kosovo, so if he become Serbian president we can expect problems in Balkan region

He can blather about some fantomatic frontiers extending to Virovitica, Karlobag and Karlovac (that would comprise more than two thirds of the Croatian territory), as much as he likes, but he is not able to carry out any of such plans. Or maybe only in some phantasmagoric vision with a bottle of šljivovica in his hand...

[Crvena zvezda]

Originally Posted by Rex Chroatorum

I will just say that Nikolic whants Serbian border on Virovitica-Karlovac-Karlobag line(part of Croatian teritory), unification of Republika Srpska(part of Bosnia) with Serbia and send a army on Kosovo, so if he become Serbian president we can expect problems in Balkan region

Nikolic isn't extreme to the degreee Seselj is. His views can be summed up in the following:
- Serbia keeps Kosovo.
- If Serbia does not keep Kosovo then Republika Srpska should be unified with Serbia (he seeks this regardless of Kosovo's status, howeever for practical reasons he knows such an event is more likely to occur in the case of Kosovo's independence)
- He seeks re-unification with Montenegro (actually, Montenegro becoming part of Serbia)

When it comes to Croatia. Nikolic's views don't follow the Virovitica-Karlovac-Karlobag line Seselj has ranted on about for years. His view is that he would want Serb areas to be part of Serbia. Nikolic's view is that after the issue of Kosovo is solved all Serb refugees from Croatia should be sent back to where they came from.

[Ostrogorski]

Originally Posted by Rex Chroatorum

I will just say that Nikolic whants Serbian border on Virovitica-Karlovac-Karlobag line(part of Croatian teritory), unification of Republika Srpska(part of Bosnia) with Serbia and send a army on Kosovo, so if he become Serbian president we can expect problems in Balkan region

If you don't have anything worthier to contribute to this thread, I strongly suggest you stop trolling.

And trust me, we Serbs really don't give a damn what someone, who lives in a federation with Muslims and supports the Albanian criminals and terrorists, is going to think about our nationalist oriented politicians...

[Rex Chroatorum]

Originally Posted by Ostrogorski

If you don't have anything worthier to contribute to this thread, I strongly suggest you stop trolling.

And trust me, we Serbs really don't give a damn what someone, who lives in a federation with Muslims and supports the Albanian criminals and terrorists, is going to think about our nationalist oriented politicians...

Well i give damn if that politician dreams about Great Serbia, well I dont see what is your point if we live in federation with muslims?

[Marulus]

Tomislav sanja Veliku Srbiju? » Elres Magazin

http://www.globus.com.hr/Clanak.aspx...&ClanakID=1126

\'Ponovno bih bio četnik i time se ponosim\' - DNEVNIK.hr

However, he says he is opposed to any kind of new war.

[Crvena zvezda]

Originally Posted by Marulus

Tomislav sanja Veliku Srbiju? » Elres Magazin

http://www.globus.com.hr/Clanak.aspx...&ClanakID=1126

\'Ponovno bih bio četnik i time se ponosim\' - DNEVNIK.hr

However, he says he is opposed to any kind of new war.

He is. He might talk about creating a greater Serbia but he wants it to be more a situation in which RS declared independence and two precents are used:
- Kosovo (least preferred).
- Bosnia is a federal state and RS should have the right to independence based on the EU/"international community"/western view of post-Cold War conflicts which is of the opinion "only in federal states can their be secession of an area."

When it comes to Croatia. Any statements he makes of incorporating it's areas into Serbia are lies. He knows Serbs will never be majorities in the areas where they were and that even if he were to send them the fact is that automatically they would either head west, sell their property for a profit or move to Zagreb or Dalmatia since the Krajina region is poor & undeveloped.

[Marulus]

Serbia pulled between Russia and West in election

EU reaffirms confidence over Serbia\'s future

[Ostrogorski]

Originally Posted by wilpuri

I mean, which is the lesser evil? If Nikolic is an old-fashioned hardliner, it hardly promises any improvement to Serbia and the region as a whole, nor for nationalism in Europe, as a whole.

Whatever those "lesser evil" and "old-fashioned hardliner" mean. And they do sound like typical Reuters, AP, BBC etc. vocabulary. Not like Euro-identitarian, indeed.

The difference between two candidates - Boris Tadić and Tomislav Nikolić is the same difference as between Kasparov and Putin. And that's what Serbian people expects of Nikolić - to be our Putin. Nothing more and nothing less.

And that's why western countries and some of our neighbors fear him - he'll stop the downfall of Serbia, and he'll be able to solve "the Kosovo problem" once and for all. He'll also rely more on Russi