Gordon Brown's lead may provoke election

[Marcus Marulus]

Gordon Brown's lead may provoke election

By George Jones, Political Editor

Last Updated: 2:02am BST 27/07/2007

Gordon Brown's dilemma over calling a snap "honeymoon" election this autumn is increased today by a YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph showing that he has established a poll lead capable of doubling Labour's Commons majority.

Mr Brown marks his first month as Prime Minister today with the best opinion poll ratings for Labour since the outbreak of the Iraq war four years ago.

Labour's nine-point lead, comparable to its performance in the 2001 general election, would give Mr Brown a Commons majority of 134 over all other parties, double his present 67 working majority.

He will have to decide within weeks whether to capitalise on his advantage and call an October election before a demoralised Conservative Party can regroup - or wait until spring or later before seeking his own mandate.

While Mr Brown enjoys a better-than-expected start to his premiership, David Cameron's stock with the voters has nose-dived after a series of policy about-turns, by-election setbacks and an ill-timed visit to Rwanda during the floods.

He is facing the grim prospect that he could be the fourth successive Conservative leader to take his party to an election defeat, raising the question of whether the Tories could ever win power again.
The confirmation that Mr Brown's arrival in No 10 has dramatically transformed Labour's standing will send shock waves through an already nervous Conservative Party.

The poll puts Labour on 41 per cent, up three points since June, the Conservatives on 32 per cent (down three) and the Liberal Democrats on 16 (up one). Only one in five voters thinks the Tories can win next time.
YouGov last put Labour on 41 per cent in April 2003, immediately after the toppling of Saddam Hussein.

After being ahead of Labour for most of his 20 months in charge of the Tories, Mr Cameron has limped into the relative calm of the 11-week Commons summer recess with his party in disarray.

Many of his MPs are left bewildered by the sudden reversal in fortunes.
David Cameron's stock with voters has nose-dived

The poll shows that Mr Cameron has been badly damaged by a series of mistakes and blunders since he was forced into an undignified about-turn two months ago over his decision to abandon the Tories' traditional support for academic selection.
Even Mr Cameron's supporters now accept that the timing of his visit to Rwanda to highlight the party's international aid policies was "unfortunate", as it meant that he was abroad during the worst of
the floods that have swept the country - including his constituency.

According to YouGov, the Tories are slipping backwards to the point at which they suffered their third election defeat just over two years ago.

The impact on Mr Cameron's personal rating has been devastating. Six months ago, 43 per cent of voters thought he was proving a good leader of the Conservative Party, with only 27 per cent saying he was not.
Now the position has been effectively reversed, with only 27 per cent thinking well of Mr Cameron's performance - and Mr Brown enjoying an 18-point lead over his Tory rival when people are asked who would make the best prime minister.

Mr Brown's reviews of policy on casinos and cannabis have gone down well with voters but Mr Cameron is more in tune with the public mood over his demand for a referendum on the proposed European constitution.
The poll shows that 58 per cent back the Tory call for a referendum, with only 17 per cent supporting Mr Brown's refusal to give the voters the final say on a new EU treaty.

Mr Brown has already put his party on alert for an early election and work has started on drawing up a manifesto.

At a strategy meeting at Chequers yesterday, Cabinet ministers were told that September - when Parliament is still in recess - will be a working month, with regular Cabinet meetings and policy initiatives intended to keep the Tories on the back foot.

While Labour MPs are allowed to be on holiday in August, Mr Brown wants them out campaigning well ahead of Parliament's return on Oct 8.
Labour MPs left Westminster in their most buoyant mood since the early days of New Labour's election victories, with many urging Mr Brown to call an election before the Tories had a chance to recover.

Mr Cameron, who yesterday visited flood-hit areas, urged his party to keep its nerve.

He said he would stick to his modernising strategy and fight on the centre-ground, with the NHS, schools and the environment - rather than traditional issues such as tax and immigration - as his priorities.

In an interview for Channel Five News, to be broadcast this evening, Mr Cameron cast aside political differences to express "huge sympathy'' with Mr Brown over the "body blow" of his son being diagnosed with cystic fibrosis.

Asked if he was a religious man, Mr Cameron said: "I am a Christian, I go to church, I believe in God, but I do not have a 'direct line'.''

Asked whether his faith had ever been tested, Mr Cameron, clearly moved, said: "Yes, when my eldest son was born. He is severely disabled. He has had a very difficult life and you ask yourself, 'If there is a God, why can anything like this happen?''.'

However, the birth of Ivan had in some ways strengthened his faith.

[source]

[OneEnglishNorman]

Cameron's problem is that his public persona is too close to Tony Blair's. And his gimmicks in Rwanda and the North Pole just come across as excruciatingly forced.

Brown's window of opportunity is slim; in a matter of months he will no longer appear to be new or a departure from the Blair years. He really needs to call an election ASAP.