Al-Qaida's targets: Will Rome Be Next?

[Menydh]

Al-Qaida's targets
Will Rome Be Next?

Der Spiegel
July 8, 2005

Following the attacks in London, the question now being asked by many is which European capital will be al-Qaida's next target. If you were to go by al-Qaida strategy papers that have circulated in recent years, it would be easy to conclude that Rome is up next.


The series of books, papers and pamphlets written by al-Qaida terrorists and strategists is ever growing and includes titles like "The Art of War," the "Encyclopedia of Jihad," "What and Against Who Are We Fighting?" The terrorist network has long viewed itself as an organic organization that constantly adapts its strategy to fit both objectives and targets of opportunity.

The books may conjure images in the West of raving-mad jihadist fighters, but they are the best sources available for determining which regions of the world face the danger of the next terrorist attack, especially in the wake of Thursday's bombings in London. What do these papers tell us about the direction in which al-Qaida is heading?

One thing is clear: al-Qaida's masterminds all agree that countries with troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are the enemy. In a 2003 strategy paper obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the terrorist organization named them explicitly -- they include Spain, Great Britain, Poland, Italy, Japan and Ukraine. And a letter posted on the Internet Thursday, the authenticity of which has not yet been proven, claimed responsibility for the London attacks and was signed by the "Secret Organization: al-Qaida in Europe." The letter made threats against Italy and Denmark, countries which both have troops in Iraq.

A latent danger

But even countries you wouldn't expect to be under the crosshairs of the terrorists are still on al-Qaida's radar, including Germany. Though the group explicitly praised Germany's opposition of the Iraq war, its presence in Afghanistan has made it vulnerable to attacks. In June 2004, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper reported about an internal memo from Germany's Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) stating the agency's concern that "Germany, especially in light of its role in Afghanistan and its efforts in the fight against Islamist terrorism, could become an increasingly attractive target for (terrorist) violence."

The murder of a German businessman in Riyadh days before set the backdrop for the revised assessment. After the group killed the executive in May 2004, SPIEGEL ONLINE became the first to report about the letter claiming responsibility for the attack on the Internet. The al-Qaida posting stated: "The mujahedeen have killed a Western infidel who was a German citizen." The killing, it said, should serve as a reminder "that Germany is one of the key countries in the international alliance against terrorism." Like the United States, it participated in the "attack on Afghanistan" with "force" and is now part of the "American project to occupy Islamic countries." The BKA concluded that this line of argumentation could be used by terrorists to justify attacks on German targets.

If you use the frequency and explicitness of statements by al-Qaida as a measuring stick, then Italy and Poland are presumed to be Washington's most-important allies after Britain -- and they are high on the list of potential targets. In the 2003 al-Qaida strategy paper, Spain was described as the "first domino" because it was the country with troops in Iraq with the greatest public resistance to the war back at home. The authors of the strategy paper believed an attack there could have the greatest impact. Poland and Italy also emerged as the possible successor target. The paper itself called for attacks against soldiers from these countries inside Iraq, but the example of the bombings in Madrid and London show that al-Qaida terrorist cells, or other groups inspired by them, have found enough motivation in the lists to strike directly at the civilians of these countries.

Complex plans

But experts see a difference between Italy and Poland in that Italy has been named with greater frequency (and Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has even been named personally). There are also other factors that would make an attack against Poland less likely. There are hardly any Arabs living in the country -- at least not compared with London or Rome -- and it would be harder for sleeper cells to blend in with local populations without the risk of drawing attention to themselves. And on Friday, a new warning was issued against Rome -- purportedly by an al-Qaida group.

Alongside Italy and Poland, Istanbul is also believed to be at considerable risk of a terrorist attack. The city was struck in November 2003 in an act of al-Qaida-inspired terrorism. Turkey is significant to many Islamist extremists, since they oppose the strict secular division of church and state which Ankara has codified in law. Nevertheless, with a mostly Muslim population, the danger for Istanbul's civilian population is somewhat lower. Instead, the greatest risk in the city is to foreign businesses, as illustrated by the bombings of British interests there. Though al-Qaida justifies the killing of less devout Muslims on religious grounds, the terrorist organization tries to kill as few as possible. After all, the goal of al-Qaida terrorism is to build sympathy for its message in the Islamic world.

A two-prong approach to terror

In any consideration of potential Western targets, it is also crucial to examine the fact that al-Qaida has fundamentally changed the way it operates. These days, the terror group operates on two levels. It plans large-scale attacks rich in symbolism and prestige in metropolitan cities like London, New York or Madrid. At the same time, it also conducts small, targeted attacks against Western businesses, professionals, diplomats and soldiers.

The larger attacks are aimed at increasing al-Qaida's reputation as a professional organization, but they don't happen very often because of the complicated planning they require.

That's why the smaller attacks happen more frequently. It requires far less planning to strike a Western firm in Saudi Arabia or to conduct a suicide attack in vulnerable Iraq. And don't forget, al-Qaida may be an international terrorist network, but it is also one that acts on the local level through small groups of Islamist extremists. It is even highly improbable that founder Osama bin Laden is personally involved in attacks in Baghdad or Riyadh before they happen. Instead, those attacks are just part of the everyday business of Terror Inc.

Another example of the split between local operations and the group as a whole is represented by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -- the terror don in Iraq. His goal is to trigger a civil war in the violence torn country. But a civil war in Iraq would weaken the Shiite Muslims -- who now have a solid position in the country's government -- in favor of their Sunni Muslim counterparts. And when choosing targets for attack, al-Qaida leadership places far more emphasis on causing pain to the West than it does on playing the arbiter between inner-Islamic schisms. After all, it seems unlikely that al-Qaida would ever stage an attack in Shiite Iran.

A close reading of al-Qaida papers also reveals a third level which has less to do with geography. Looking for ways to weaken the Western economy, for example, is an important consideration for terrorists. "We believe the Iraqi resistance is capable of driving the costs for the USA close to what they have considered to be the ceiling ... namely $400 billion," the 2003 paper stated -- a conclusion the terrorists drew through monitoring the public debate in the United States and by paying attention to business and financial news. The consequences: Attacks against oil-drilling installations in Saudi Arabia that raised oil prices. And for several months now, the Saudi branch of al-Qaida has been threatening to attack Western airlines with the declared goal of triggering a financial disaster for them.

Similar considerations also underlie the "ranking lists" often published by the organization. Al-Qaida ideologues, for example, have written that it would be preferable to kill an Israeli before a Brit, a Jew before a Christian and an executive rather than a priest. In other words, personal threats also emanate from al-Qaida. The kidnappings in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia are proof of that.

"So, Tomorrow in Berlin?" asked the frightened editors of the Berlin tabloid newspaper B.Z. on Friday. But the answer to this question, at least for the moment, is this: Certainly not tomorrow and not the day after tomorrow. But in no way can the possibility of an attack in Germany be ruled out. There's already a motive and it probably wouldn't be difficult for al-Qaida to find people willing to do it.


[source]

[Strengthandhonour]

I can see Rome being attacked for sure. The Italian police has already started doing raids and finding weapons/explosives in the houses of different individuals which means there is people in the country who plan to do attacks.

[Prinz Eugen]

Well it seems that Europe pays the open gates immigration policy by accepting millions of immigrant from 3rd world,multicultural policy of accept every culture and religion and the dedication to PAX AMERICANA/JUDAICA!