Algerian Nuclear Weapons ?

[Theobald]

These articles are rather old (1998 and 2004), but still very interesting in the current situation as Algeria could probably produce nuclear weapons soon, and therefore use them on Marseille, French Mediterranean coast and of course Iberian peninsula and Italy. It could even become a realistic prospect, Islamist movements being very important in Algeria.

Interesting is also the fact that the USA now regard Algeria as a "partner" (like Albania, Morocco, Turkey or fundamentalist Saudi Arabia, ...).

[Theobald]

Spanish Intelligence Warns of Algerian Nuclear Potential

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/li...tac-98-235.htm

"Cesid warns that in two years Algeria will have the capacity to produce military plutonium"


Report by M. Gonzalez and J.M. Larraya

Madrid El Pais 23 August 1998


Madrid -- Algeria has renounced the atomic bomb by signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and accepting International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections. However it is going ahead with a nuclear program which far exceeds its civil needs and in two years' time it will have the installations necessary to produce military plutonium, a key element in the atomic bomb. This warning appears in a confidential report drafted in July by the Cesid [Higher Center for Defense Intelligence], according to which at the end of the century Algeria will be technically in a position to produce nuclear weapons if its authorities so decide. The nuclear tests carried out last May by India and Pakistan have set the alarm bells ringing in the West about the risk of atomic weapons proliferation among Third World countries. For Spain the main focus of concern is the nuclear program developed by Algeria, with the technical support of China and Argentina.


In this context, in July the secret service Cesid submitted to the government a report, to which El Pais has had access, in which it describes the current situation of this program and warns about the danger which its diversion to military ends would involve.


"At present, Algeria is fully signed up to the non-proliferation regime, after accepting the discipline required by the nuclear safeguards of the IAEA," says the intelligence service's document, classified as confidential.


"However," it adds, "the Algerian nuclear program, originally conceived with a clear military purpose, continues to equip itself with the installations necessary to carry out all the activities linked to the complete cycle for obtaining military grade plutonium, a key element in a nuclear arms program."


"Although the Algerian government's decision on its nuclear program is at present at variance with the policy of the 1980s, the knowledge obtained by an impressive staff of experts and scientists, as well as the availability of the installations which it will have at the end of the century, will place this country in an advantageous position to restart a military program if the corresponding political decision is taken," the report concludes.


The political instability of Algeria, which has been plunged in a bloody civil conflict since the elections being won by the fundamentalists were suspended in 1991, increases the possibility that future Algerian authorities could revise its renunciation of nuclear weapons.

US pressure

The Cesid report leaves no doubt about the purpose of the secret agreements signed by Algeria with China and Argentina at the beginning of the 1980s: to produce "military grade plutonium, material necessary to be able to make nuclear weapons."


It was pressure from the United States, whose satellites discovered the building of the El Salam nuclear reactor near Birine, some 250 kilometers south of Algiers, which led the Algerian authorities to accept the IAEA safeguards in 1992 and join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1995.


The inspection of the Algerian installations by the IAEA caused tensions, for it was discovered that three kilograms of enriched uranium, several liters of heavy water, and several pellets of natural uranium supplied by China had not been declared to this organization. After the resolving of these difficulties, the document judges that the IAEA's system of safeguards, which includes quarterly inspections, "will not totally guarantee the impossibility of irregular, non-declared use of the Algerian nuclear installations, but it will prevent these activities being carried out continuously."


The El Salam nuclear reactor has a theoretical capacity to produce up to three kilograms of plutonium a year, but the report judges that only a few grams could be diverted to military ends without being detected by the international checks.


In addition, according to the report, Algeria depends on the supplying of nuclear fuel from abroad -- the IAEA has confirmed the purchase of 150 tonnes of uranium concentrate from Niger in 1984 -- and is therefore not "self-sufficient to undertake a military nuclear program on its own, which is its main limitation at present." However this statement may be superseded by the recent discovery of uranium in the Hoggar region, in the southeast of the country.


Anyway, the major cause for concern stems from the fact that Algeria's acceptance of the IAEA safeguards and joining the NPT has not meant the halting of its nuclear program and not even a rethinking of the initial plan, conceived with military ends.


All the papers relating to the plan, the reports adds, are still classified secret by the Algerian authorities, "which is surprising given the totally peaceful use which, according to the official statements," these installations will have.


As a result, the Nuclear Energy Commission -- which has directed all activities in this sector since last March -- finds itself "with capabilities in the nuclear field far in excess of its needs," in the view of the Cesid. These needs are, furthermore, very limited since Algeria's greatest wealth is precisely its abundant energy resources, especially natural gas.
Concern about the development of the Algerian nuclear program is not confined to the Cesid. The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington spoke in very similar terms in a document circulated at the beginning of June, which also highlighted the possession by the Algerian armed forces of delivery systems -- bombers, Soviet-made rockets and launchers -- capable of carrying nuclear weapons.


Algeria also has underground sites where France carried out its own atomic bomb tests prior to Algerian independence.

[Theobald]

A nuclear program assisted by China and Argentina

J.M.L./M.G., Madrid

http://www.isis-online.org/publicati...ia/elpais.html

China has been the principle supplier of nuclear technology to Algeria since those countries signed a secret accord in 1983. The program involved the construction of the nuclear complex at Birine, which includes the Es Salam reactor, a hot cell laboratory, and another for the production of radioisotopes.

Es Salam is a heavy water reactor, with 15 megawatt capability, able to produce military grade plutonium. Opened in December 1993, as soon as it was functional, except during tests.

It also had concluded the second phase of the program, the construction of the hot cell laboratory, where it will dismantle the nuclear fuel removed from the reactor, the prior step for obtaining plutonium.

The third and final phase of the program will consist of the construction of a radioisotope production laboratory, with the capability to extract plutonium from the nuclear fuel first irradiated in the reactor, and then dismantled in the hot cells.

Algeria and China signed the corresponding contract in May 1997 to import $1.9 million (285 million pesetas), but construction has, as yet, not begun, and is expected to begin after the summer and last for two years.
The Chinese cooperation was complemented by that of Argentina, which, in 1989, sold Algeria the Nur research reactor, irrelevant from a military point of view.

Argentina also committed to build a fuel fabrication plant, in theory for the Nur reactor, but really directed at Es Salam, which can only operate with uranium enriched to 3%.

Due to the fact that the Algerians complained of faulty construction and Argentinean delays in payments, the plant has not yet begun operating, although it should have in 1990. Almost completed, it should begin functioning by the end of this year.

[Theobald]

Algeria: Us Pressure Over Country's Nuclear Capabilities

SOURCE: Liberte web site, Algiers, in French 7 Mar 04

http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/ne...ia-nuclear.htm


After Libya, will it be Algeria? According to our information, for several weeks Algiers has been subjected to discreet but insistent American pressure to force her to accept unscheduled visits by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to her two nuclear reactors, Salam and Nour. All the American officials who have recently visited Algeria have addressed the topic with the Algerian authorities. Officially the Bush administration, which has made the fight against nuclear proliferation its main priority, does not suspect Algeria of wanting to provide herself with the nuclear weapon. For the past several months, relations between the two countries have improved markedly owing to cooperation in the area of the fight against terrorism.

As Liberte has already revealed, the recent operations conducted in southern Algeria against the troops of the Salafist Group for Call and Combat (GSPC) were carried out with the support of American experts. And, despite the official denial by its embassy in Algiers, the United States will indeed set up a relay base in southern Algeria. The latter will allow the country, on an ad hoc basis, to carry out antiterrorist operations in the Sahel region which the American suspect of harbouring, for some time, elements from the Al-Qa'idah network who fled Afghanistan following the fall of the Taleban regime. "For the Bush administration, Algeria is instead perceived as a partner. In December, the US Congress authorized the sale of weapons to Algeria. And generally the Americans do not sell weapons to countries with which it has problems," explained Philippe Golub, a political science professor at the American University of Paris and a contributor to Le Monde diplomatique. Nevertheless, on the nuclear issue, the Americans are exhibiting serious worries. Starting in 1991, "the United States was worried by the fact that Algeria could develop nuclear weapons with the help of the Chinese government," the GlobalSecurity.org internet site stated, which is close to the Pentagon and reputedly serious. The site also stated that the Ain Oussera reactor is capable of enriching uranium and can produce between "three and five kilograms of plutonium annually (that is, the equivalent of one nuclear weapon)".

Furthermore, the confidential geopolitique.com newsletter, in its most recent edition, stated that "last year the General Directorate for External Security (DGSE, French intelligence services) questioned at length a top official from the Algerian programme who had fled his country. This defector provided assurances that the energy production from the Nour electric power plant that Algeria had purchased from Argentina, which, until now, had been estimated at one megawatt, can in fact be assessed at 15 megawatts; this power plant is thus reportedly capable of producing three to five kilograms of plutonium annually, sufficient to manufacture a nuclear bomb. According to these reports, Algerian and Chinese experts are already working on the second phase, that of vehicles, and are studying the changes that need to be made to certain missiles to allow them to be equipped with a nuclear or chemical charge". Geopolitique.com also quoted a report by the Spanish secret services according to which "for the past four years, Algeria has possessed the plants necessary for the production of military-grade plutonium that could be used in the manufacture of a bomb".
The increase in the number of reports in the western press about Algerian nuclear capabilities comes just three weeks after the speech delivered by George W. Bush on weapons of mass destruction. This past 11 February, the American president had in fact indicated that his administration wanted to restrict access to civilian nuclear technologies to all developing countries and not just "rogue states". The increase also occurs at a time when reports from western secret services are stating that the Algerian army is now the most modern and the most powerful in the entire Arab world. This is oddly reminiscent of another case, that of Iraq in the late 1980's.

[Dr. Solar Wolff]

The USA invaded Iraq because maybe, someday, perhaps, they just might have nuclear weapons. On the other hand, North Korea can't shout loudly enough that they have nuclear weapons and seem to announce each new one they make, and then directly threaten the USA ----no invasion, nothing.

Lesson: don't announce nuclear weapons until you have them and then nobody will dare threaten you.

Result: Everyone, soon, will have nuclear weapons. So we might as well accept it.

[Theobald]

Originally Posted by Dr. Solar Wolff

Lesson: don't announce nuclear weapons until you have them and then nobody will dare threaten you.

Result: Everyone, soon, will have nuclear weapons. So we might as well accept it.

Indeed. Algerian nuclear capacities are thus rather a matter of "when" than a matter of "if". But there, unlike in Iraq, there will not be any American intervention - as, unlike Iraq, these nuclear weapons would pose a direct threat to Europe.
I'd make of a pre-emptive strike on Algeria a matter of principle - especially on nuclear complexes (like in Osirak) and air bases (SU-30, SU-34, Mig-29, bombers SU-24 and - guess what - perhaps soon French Rafale ). Let's hope it won't be too late.

[Dr. Solar Wolff]

Originally Posted by Der Elsasser

Indeed. Algerian nuclear capacities are thus rather a matter of "when" than a matter of "if". But there, unlike in Iraq, there will not be any American intervention - as, unlike Iraq, these nuclear weapons would pose a direct threat to Europe.
I'd make of a pre-emptive strike on Algeria a matter of principle - especially on nuclear complexes (like in Osirak) and air bases (SU-30, SU-34, Mig-29, bombers SU-24 and - guess what - perhaps soon French Rafale ). Let's hope it won't be too late.

This is France's sphere of influence. France will have to decide what to do. Whatever happens, sooner or later Europe will have to re-arm and assume the responsibilities that their economic power has thrust upon them.