Putin's smart Gabala gambit

[Lucas Corso]

Putin's smart Gabala gambit
By Nikolas K Gvosdev

By proposing to base an anti-ballistic-missile system in Azerbaijan - and to have it be a joint operation between Russia and the West - Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have caught the White House off guard. And the Russian leader, whose penchant for judo is well known, now appears ready to flip some of Washington's own arguments and statements to strengthen the case against the deployment of any such system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The Gabala radar installation in Azerbaijan that Russia leases covers precisely the areas of the world where the threat from rogue states (or accidental launches) is most acute - the Middle East and the Indian Ocean basin. It is a bit more difficult to argue that a system based in the Czech Republic and Poland is somehow more effective at covering Iran than one in the southern Caucasus. (Interestingly, the Gabala station was once offered by Azerbaijan, in the late 1990s, to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for use as a possible base.)

After weeks of talks with senior US officials declaring they were perplexed by Russia's unwillingness to consider cooperation, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley commented in Germany: "We asked the Russians to cooperate with us on missile defense, and what we got was a willingness to do so."

Sentiment in Europe about deploying the US defense system is quite divided. No one wants to discount completely a possible threat from Iran, but many were concerned about the resurgence of tensions between Russia and the West if an East European deployment went forward. Putin's proposal now gives such critics - including those in the Czech Republic, where support for the US proposal hovers at only about 30% - a way out. They can cite, as Putin did, that an Azerbaijan-based system will cover all of Europe and that debris would not pose a risk to populated areas.

If Washington demurs from the Putin proposal, it then calls into question whether or not the United States had other "hidden" motives behind its desire to site the system in Poland and the Czech Republic - the so-called "beachhead" argument that a small system directed against Iran could then be expanded, over time, to be directed against what is a shrinking and less effective Russian nuclear arsenal.

Putin may also be wanting to demonstrate to the government of President Ilham Aliyev in Baku the "fair-weather" nature of the Americans. For years, the Azerbaijanis were quite interested in forging closer strategic ties with Washington. Putin, who claims to have discussed the Gabala proposal with Aliyev and said he received Aliyev's approval to make the offer, may also want to remind the United States that the easy distinction between "free" nations supporting the US and "unfree" ones being satellites of Moscow doesn't quite work when it comes to the Caucasus.

Putin now looks a lot more reasonable on the issue of missile defense than he did even a day ago.

Nikolas K Gvosdev is editor of The National Interest.

Source: The National Interest

[Crvena zvezda]

It seem's this gambit will fail. JTW News - Azeris oppose Putin\'s sharing offer.

Azeris oppose Putin's sharing offer

Azeris Angry at Putin Radar Offer

Many say Putin has no right to allow Washington to use the Galaba station.

By Jasur Mamedov in Baku (CRS No. 396 14-Jun-07)

Russia’s unexpected offer to let the United States share its radar station in Azerbaijan has left many here stunned and angry.
President Vladimir Putin stunned US counterpart George W. Bush with his offer, made at the G8 summit in Germany last week, which was intended to defuse a row over US plans to site missiles in Eastern Europe. But once the shock has died down, another row may start, since many Azeris instantly pointed out that Putin has no right to offer the use of someone else’s facilities.

Azeri president Ilham Aliyev was quite positive about the idea. “This is a new element in [Azerbaijan’s] strategic cooperation with the two countries,” he told Russian television.

But other officials were angry.

“If Russia intends to allow it to be used by a third country, it must discuss the issue with Azerbaijan,” said Ziyafat Askerov, vice-speaker of Azerbaijan’s parliament. Citing article 4 of the Gabala radar station lease agreement, he said the station cannot be handed over to a third party without Azerbaijan’s permission.

Azerbaijan’s former ambassador in Russia Khikmet Haji-zade, who is now a well-known political analyst, was also critical. “The Russian president’s statement is utter political tactlessness,” he said.

“The president of Russia has failed to take two factors into consideration. The first is that Azerbaijan already has a missile defence system. The second is that it is up to Azerbaijan to determine the fate of the Gabala radar station, not up to the country that has temporary lease of the facilities. That is why Azerbaijan’s response to Putin’s statement should be tough.”

The US intention to build missile defence systems in the Czech Republic and Poland have been at the heart of one of the bitterest arguments between Moscow and Washington since the end of the Cold War. Russia is unconvinced that the system is targeted only against Iran and has threatened to pull out of a series of bilateral arms treaties and increase its military presence in Europe.

Many agree that by offering to share operation of the radar station in Azerbaijan’s Gabala District, just 200 kilometres away from Iran’s borders, Russia has stripped the American administration of its main trump card and driven it into a tight corner.

The Gabala radar station monitors much of Asia, including Iran, as well as a large part of Africa and islands in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. It was built in 1987 and Russia continued to use it after the fall of the Soviet Union despite having no legal grounds for doing so. Russia and Azerbaijan finally agreed in 2002 that the station was Azeri property. Russia would pay 3 million US dollars a year to rent it on a ten-year lease.

Iran has been anxiously watching to see how the events will unfold. The Iranian embassy in Baku quoted the Iranian foreign ministry as saying, “Over the past days, there have been many conflicting statements about the joint Russia-USA use of the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan. We are checking them with a great attention and particular sensitivity.”

And Azeri experts warned that Azerbaijan could become a target for Iranian attack if US forces did arrive. They said Baku should demand security guarantees from both Russia and America before allowing the centre to be placed on its territory.

The public in Azerbaijan are also concerned about the ecological consequences of expanding the radar station, which is widely seen as the source of dangerous radiation.

“If the US is allowed to use the radar station, its capacities will be increased, which means the damage being done to the environment will grow too,” said independent military expert Azad Isazade. “The clouds reflect radar waves onto densely-populated areas of the country nearby. Officially, they say the station is harmless but independent medical studies suggest the contrary.”

“Before moving to increase the capacities of the Gabala radar station, it is necessary to assess its influence on the environment and populated areas,” agreed Adil Gadirov, director of the Institute for Radiation Problems. “Currently, we do not have the slightest idea of that. State commissions have been organised twice to study the issue, however no results have resulted.”

Political analyst Rasim Musabekov was the only one who spotted a silver lining in the offer. He said cooperation with America might bring the White House and the Kremlin to support Azerbaijan in its efforts to regain control of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh province, which is ruled by ethnic Armenians and outside central government control.

“The shared use of the Gabala radar station will lead Russia to change its stance on the Karabakh issue in Azerbaijan’s favour,” he said. “Making the right use of the factor of energy resources and their transit, growing profits and the strategic US-Russia partnership in the region, Azerbaijan will boost its chances of having the Karabakh problem solved in its favour.”

[Crvena zvezda]

Also it seems the U.S. is constructing it's own radar system in the region. JTW News - USA is constructing its own radar system in South Caucasus.

USA is constructing its own radar system in South Caucasus


Expert: USA is constructing its own radar system in South Caucasus

“It seems to me that the proposal made by Russian President Vladimir Putin to use jointly the Gabala radar system in Azerbaijan was an invitation for a political dialog on wide range of issues in international security,” political analyst Karine Gevorgyan said in an interview to a REGNUM correspondent.

“Vladimir Putin’s proposal was treated as a sensational one; meanwhile, as early as on May 2, 2007, information from an unnamed source in the Pentagon was seen in the internet that the United States would appreciate it if Russia and Azerbaijan agreed for joint use of the Gabala radar station. He alleged to express opinion of the US leadership. So, the Russian president, possibly, reacted to the proposal from the USA itself, where, as it seems, there had been no unanimous opinion between the Department of State and the Pentagon from the start,” she said. Besides, according to Karine Gervorgyan, Azerbaijani officials made no secret of the fact that the question had been discussed during Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Baku. Putin’s statement that he had had a discussion with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who, according to the Russian leader, said Azerbaijan would be happy to participate in the security issues that concern Russia and the USA, confirms the fact of Russia’s consultations with Azerbaijan, believes the expert. “I know from official sources that in the frameworks of an agreement on military cooperation signed by the USA and Azerbaijan the United States is planning to include the radar station in Lerik and a radiotelephone observation station in Agstafa into the Caucasnet radar net. Last year, the USa deployed radars in two districts in Azerbaijan. Besides, they modernized an air defense base in Kurdamir. On this background, Russia is selling defensive weapons to Iran and strengthening its positions in Armenia. The contract between Russia and Azerbaijan for renting the Gabala Radar System expires in 2012. Now it is not working to its full capacity,” Karine Gervorgyan

According to the analyst, Iran’s position on the issue is the same as it is on the issue of stationing two US radar systems, one of which will be targeted for Iran. “Tehran has nothing against it,” said Iranian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Afshar Suleimani earlier. “Such reaction is possibly caused by change of Iran’s defensive status,” supposes the expert. At the same time, Karine Gervorgyan ruled out a possibility of a connection between the Russian-US dialog on joint use of the Gabala radar station and the process of Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement. Nevertheless, according to her, a “plot” between Moscow and Washington about Karabakh is generally plausible.