New war on its way

[Zeropean]

Originally Posted by Arthur Gordon Pym

I wish to make my position clear, lest I be misunderstood: of course that I don't support any kind of Russian imperialism, much less anything resembling neo-Soviet imperialism (if there is any). The Russian members of this board don't do that either.

My post wasn't directed to any member in particular here nor did I want to take part in any argument you have/had here in this thread, it's simply my position about this issue. I don't support Sakashvili either of course. The point is that Russia and America are setting up this wars and it's the normal people who suffer.

[Marcus Marulus]

Originally Posted by M.R.

My post wasn't directed to any member in particular here nor did I want to take part in any argument you have/had here in this thread, it's simply my position about this issue.

I know, I wasn't arguing with you bu just used your post as a starting point to clear some among my positions.

Originally Posted by M.R.

The point is that Russia and America are setting up this wars and it's the normal people who suffer.

That is true.

[Marcus Marulus]

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The United States has cancelled upcoming joint military exercises with Russia, its first concrete response to the armed conflict in Georgia, as officials consider broader reprisals following Moscow aggression.

[The Venetian]

August 13, 2008, 4:20 Ossetian refugees mourn their dead.As the noise from guns and shells dies down in the conflict zone, the sound is replaced by the crying of desperate victims. Following Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia, it's hard to find a citizen who hasn't lost a relative in the conflict.With the humanitarian corridor now completely under peacekeepers' control, convoys of refugees continue to stream into Russia's southern regions, where they are being provided with food and shelter.International aidWith South Ossetia's capital Tskhinvali completely devastated, and more than 30,000 people displaced, the international community is offering aid to those in need.France has sent a planeload of humanitarian aid and is distributing 30 tonnes of medicine and other necessities among the victims of the conflict.Spain has allocated €500,000 to help those in need.Meanwhile, British prime minister, Gordon Brown, has expressed his readiness to participate in the relief effort.Shadow of sorrowCars loaded with dead bodies continue to arrive at the morgues of Vladikavkaz and dozens of funerals are under way.Koch Final, a 24-year-old volunteer, was shot near Tskhinvali. His family say they last spoke to him two days ago. He was caught in the middle of an interior barrage of the city.“At four o'clock in the evening we called him there. He said massive shooting had begun and promised to call back. He never did,” his sister recalls.Valentina Boratova spent three days in a bunker and, during a lull in the fighting, she managed to escape. She says her son remained in Tskhinvali to protect those left behind.“We always hear disinformation. South Ossetians never attacked anybody, but the Georgians committed the fourth genocide here. They did it in 1920, 1991, 2004 and now,” Boratova says.Refugee camps near the borderare filled with women and children. They have lost their homes as well as their relatives. Many had to avoid flying bullets while trying to find their way to safety.People here say the number of refugees will only increase. And with it, the cemeteries of North Ossetia will become fuller by the day.Refuge on the coastThousands of people have been placed in temporary shelters across southern Russia. Each has their own terrible story to share, and many need psychological help.They include hundreds of children, terrified by the events of the past few days, and who now find themselves in strange surroundings away from their homes.Diana Mairamova is eight. She has never been on a beach before. Diana is one of more than 300 Ossetian refugees who found shelter at the Russian Black sea resort of Anapa. Diana's grandmother, Elena Kozaeva, says they were hiding together in the basement of their Tskinvali home, when it was shelled by Georgian artillery.“We saw that our house caught fire too. We ran out, but didn't know where to go. We were so scared. For the whole day we looked into the face of death. The shooting was so strong, the noise was overwhelming. We thought that we would surely die,” Kozaeva recalls.Elena's daughter Salima Kharobova says their 90-year-old grandfather is still in Tskhinvali.“Grandpa is alive, but there is no bread nor any food. I think he is still sitting in the cold basement, hungry,” Kharobova says.“On behalf of myself and on behalf of the people of Ossetia, I appeal to the president and the prime minister of the Russian Federation to acknowledge us, to acknowledge South Ossetia and deliver us from these fascists,” she pleaded.Thousands of South Ossetian civilians who suffered from the Georgian bombings, have endured days of fear and despair. Some of them have spent almost 20 hours on the road before arriving to safety in the Krasnodar region.Anapa is a traditional children's resort. For South Ossetia's women, children and elderly this is one of the few places where they can feel safe and try to forget the horrors they've seen as Georgia bombed their homes.Russia says it's prepared to accept any amount of refugees from Tskhinvali here on the Black Sea coast. Anapa's administration is providing food, clothes, housing and transport.Mayor Anatoly Pakhomov says it is a very emotional time for him - to see children too tired to smile and too scared, after what they had witnessed. Pakhomov says the locals are doing their best to help the refugees.“We understood that the children had spent a lot of time on the road. We had to immediately wash and feed them, and then put them to bed. So we very quickly accommodated the children, in the matter of half an hour,” Pakhomov says.

RussiaToday : News : Ossetian refugees mourn their dead

[The Venetian]

August 13, 2008, 10:07

Kosovo raises Georgian breakaway republics’ hopes
Tension between Georgia and its breakaway republics rose dramatically in the early 1990s, when Abkhazia and South Ossetia declared independence, though it has never been recognised. But earlier this year the two republics’ bid for independence got a second wind - with Kosovo's break from Serbia being the main catalyst.South Ossetia's own struggle began in 1989. It’s President, Eduard Kokoity, said: “We resulted from the democratic disintegration of the Soviet Union. We took part in referendums and our nation expressed its will. We acted in accordance with international law.”South Ossetia claims if Kosovo can have independence, then it should too.Most of its 70,000 strong population are ethnic Ossetians, not Georgians, descended from Asian migrants who settled in the area hundreds of years ago. It only became part of Georgia when the Soviet Union carved up its territory into republics after the 1917 revolution.“The South Ossetian and Kosovar conflicts both stem from the fall of multinational socialist federations - the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. That’s one thing they have in common,” political analyst Sergey Romanenko says.As communism fell, South Ossetia fought a bloody war of independence. Eight years later Kosovo followed suit. Both resulted in a shaky compromise - de facto independence and a joint peacekeeping force for South Ossetia, and UN supervision for Kosovo.But some argue that culturally, South Ossetia has an even greater right to sovereignty than Kosovo, which is considered by many to be Serbia’s historical heartland.“The memory of Serbian history is closely connected with Kosovo and with various places in Kosovo, which is so neither in Abkhazia nor in South Ossetia,” political analyst Sergey Arutyunov says.Like Kosovo, with its mix of different nationalities and faiths, South Ossetia is a checkerboard of ethnic Ossetian and Georgian-inhabited areas.Civilians of both nationalities came under fire in the war in the early 1990s. But as the world digested February’s events in Kosovo, the Georgian President spoke out for the rights of his people.Mikhail Saakashvili said: “We will never allow, and the world should never allow, the legalisation of the situation of ethnic cleansing committed in Georgia’s regions under the pretext of Kosovo, because that will be against the fundamental principals on which human rights and international law are based, and against the interests of Georgia and indeed of Russia itself.” A key player in both battles, Russia has historical ties to both Kosovo and South Ossetia.In the spring it sent aid to its fellow Slavs, the Serb enclaves in Kosovo, and now Moscow says it’s protecting its own citizens as the majority of South Ossetians now hold Russian passports.Kosovo undoubtedly raised South Ossetia’s hopes and compounded Georgia’s fears. But South Ossetia's claim for independence is an older struggle, and may have come to a head even without this precedent.As Pristina claimed sovereignty, Georgia's breakaway regions called for a unified approach in resolving regional struggles for independence.

RussiaToday : News : Kosovo raises Georgian breakaway republics’ hopes

[Errigal]

I saw this post at Antiwar.com which hits the nail on the head:

Comment by richard vajs
2008-08-12 17:36:11
Well, as John McCain says on behalf of America, “We’re all Georgians, now”. And I guess McCain is right - like Georgia, we went off half-cocked (into an invasion) without regard to the consequences. And also, like Georgia we got some really bad military advice from Israel.

Antiwar.com Blog The Arrogant Hypocrisy of the U.S. Government

[Routasydän]

Some have speculated that the Georgian 'invasion' has much to do with the growing opposition to Shaakashvili in Georgian politics, but a scary-looking Russia is also going to boost tough-talking McCain's campaign.

[orieleye]

Russian military triumph leaves pro-West Georgia uncertain

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's failed attempt to retake South Ossetia may cost him dearly in Georgia, one of the strongest US allies in Russia's backyard.

By Fred Weir | Correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor
and Paul Rimple | Contributor from the August 13, 2008 edition

MOSCOW; AND TBILISI, Georgia - There is an air of satisfaction in Moscow over what appears to be a crushing Russian victory in its muscular, five-day long intervention to preserve the quasi-independence of South Ossetia and weaken Georgia's West-leaning President Mikheil Saakashvili, whose drive to take his tiny country into NATO has deeply alarmed the Kremlin.

"The aggressor has been punished and has incurred very significant losses," said Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, who ordered an end to Russian combat operations on Tuesday just as French President Nicolas Sarkozy was arriving in Moscow to press for a cease-fire.

But in Georgia, the mood was grim and uncertain. The country's pro-Western spirit, confirmed in a referendum earlier this year, when more than 70 percent of Georgians supported immediate NATO membership, may have been dampened by what some see as a lack of support in their hour of crisis.

"The West's reaction was slow and inadequate," says analyst Archil Gegeshidze, with the independent Foundation for Strategic and International Studies in Tbilisi. Nonetheless, he adds, Western appeals may have been crucial in convincing Russia to halt its offensive. "If not, Russia would have continued advancing until our economy collapsed and the regime was changed."

Renewed hope for Russia's ties with West

Indeed, Mr. Medvedev's order appears to be a concession to demands from Western leaders, including a tough statement by President Bush. That has lifted hopes that Russia and the West may be able to salvage their deeply strained relationship, contrary to concerns in the past week about an imminent second cold war.

"Russia responded to Western appeals, so I think this shows that cooperation between Moscow and the West is alive and well," says Alexei Mukhin, director of the independent Center for Political Information in Moscow. "Maybe Russia went a little bit further than expected in bombing Georgian infrastructure, but that's over with now."

Georgian officials disputed that, however, saying that Russian forces were still shelling villages near South Ossetia, and there were reports of Russian planes bombing sites within Georgia proper, including Gori. An official of Georgia's other breakaway statelet, Abkhazia, said its Army would continue its offensive against Georgia in the disputed Kodori Gorge regardless of Medvedev's decision.

"We aim to eliminate the Georgian threat," said Maxim Gujia, Abkhazia's deputy foreign minister, reached by telephone in Sukhumi. "This is our operation, and it is not affected by Medvedev's words."

Few Russians appeared in any mood to criticize their government for what seemed an efficient operation that brought big geopolitical rewards.

"If Russia had hesitated, that might have been taken as weakness of the new president," says Sergei Mikayev, deputy director of the Center for Political Technologies, a Moscow think tank. "It seems like Russia took a decision that may not have been completely irreproachable, but it looks like there was no alternative."

Though Russian and Georgian casualty claims diverge wildly, the main United Nations refugee agency weighed in Tuesday with the sobering estimate of 100,000 persons displaced by the fighting, including up to 80 percent of the population of tiny South Ossetia.

'Saakashvili is finished'

In the Georgian capital of Tbilisi Tuesday, thousands of demonstrators waved anti-Russian placards and shouted defiance against Moscow. The war, which began with a Georgian offensive aimed at retaking South Ossetia, ended with the Russian Army in control of the breakaway statelet and much of Georgia's military infrastructure in ruins after five days of intensive Russian bombing.

"I came to support my nation and show we are all still strong," said Irakli Shonia, a manager. "I supported this war. In the end, Russia showed the world its true face."

But beneath the defiance, there were suggestions that Mr. Saakashvili, who appears to have miscalculated Russia's response to the Georgian offensive, may pay a political price. In the 2003 "Rose Revolution," Georgians embraced Saakashvili, a US-educated lawyer who pledged to reunite the fractured country of 5 million and lead it into the NATO alliance.

"What we see is a total collapse of Georgia, and the responsibility is all Saakashvili's," says Kakha Kukava, an opposition parliamentarian. "It was his personal decision to use force and the results were disastrous."

Some people in the street echoed those sentiments. "[Saakashvili] is finished," says Nestan Nijaradze, a freelance writer in Tbilisi. "But now is not the moment to talk about that. We love Georgia."

Russian military triumph leaves pro-West Georgia uncertain | csmonitor.com

[BeliAndjeo]

They told us that Russians sent humanitarian help for Serbs on Kosovo and Metohija ahaha...and after i heard that Albanians on Kosovo and Metohija are every day lauder to take north part of Kosovo and Metohija where Serbs are ruling,i guess we can expect simillar thing there in incoming days like we saw in Georgia...when? Just please,give us a reason to go there,pleaseee

[Marcus Marulus]

U.S. limited in Georgia crisis



By Peter Grier Wed Aug 13, 4:00 AM ET



WASHINGTON - Russia's blitz into the former Soviet republic of Georgia has exposed starkly the limits of US military power and geopolitical influence in the era following the invasion of Iraq.


Georgia is one of the closest US allies in Eastern Europe. President Mikheil Saakashvili has visited the White House three times in the last four years. Yet this warm relationship did not stop the Kremlin from unleashing a ferocious military response after Georgian troops entered the separatist province of South Ossetia.

US efforts to expand Western influence and spread democracy along Russia's borders may now be threatened. US relations with Russia itself, at the least, are in flux.

"This gets at the stability of the framework the US thought was going to govern the post-cold-war world," says Stephen Sestanovich, senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Russian leaders on Tuesday said they had ordered a halt to military action in Georgia. The move followed five days of air and land attacks that had routed Georgia's Army and sent Russian troops deep into Georgian territory.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced on national television that Georgia had been punished enough for its move against South Ossetia, which has close ties to Russia. But Medvedev did not immediately announce any withdrawal of forces from current positions and there were reports of continued scattered fighting.

"If there are any emerging hotbeds of resistance or any aggressive actions, you should take steps to destroy them," he told his defense minister at a televised Kremlin meeting.

President Bush, for his part, on Aug. 11 demanded that Russia end its dramatic escalation of violence in Georgia and agree to an immediate cease-fire and international mediation.

"Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century," said Mr. Bush in a statement televised shortly after his return to the US from the Beijing Olympics.

But since the crisis began, there has been no hint that the United States would consider any kind of military move, even logistical aid for Georgian forces, that would bring it into direct conflict with Russia. The US and the West appear to have little leverage over a Moscow that is flush with oil money and eager to reestablish its position along its borders.

Expulsion of Russia from the G-8 group of industrialized nations was among the few apparent strong actions the US and Europe could take.
Other possible moves include threatening Russia with the loss of the 2014 Winter Olympic games at the Black Sea resort of Sochi.

"The United States, its allies, and other countries need to send a strong signal to Moscow that creating 19th-century-style spheres of influence and redrawing the borders of the former Soviet Union is a danger to world peace," said Ariel Cohen, senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies at the Heritage Foundation, in an analysis of the impact of the crisis.

Georgian President Saakashvili has long been one of the Bush administration's favorite world leaders. Georgia contributed 2,000 troops to the US effort in Iraq, and Mr. Saakashvili has talked often of his support for Bush administration efforts to spread freedom and democracy among the countries of the former Soviet Union.

Saakashvili and Bush seem to share a good personal chemistry. Bush visited Georgia in 2005; during Saakashvili's return visits to the White House, the two joshed about folk dancing and their wives' luncheon plans.
In March, at a White House appearance, Saakashvili thanked Bush for supporting Georgia's aspirations to join NATO and for "protecting Georgia's borders."

"I think this is a very unequivocal support we're getting from you," the Georgian leader told the US president, for the cameras.


The US has long publicly stated that it is in favor of a peaceful settlement of Georgia's disputes with its breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Yet Saakashvili decided to send troops into South Ossetia, anyway. That appears to have been the spark that set off the crisis – or the provocation that Russia was waiting for.

Perhaps the Georgian leader thought the US would come to his aid if he got in trouble. If so, he did not take into account the drain that Iraq has been on US forces and the US standing in the world – or the American need to work with Russia on other important geopolitical issues, such as the effort to curb Iran's nuclear program.

"In many respects, Saakashvili got too close to the US, and the US got too close to Saakashvili.... Perhaps that made him overreach," says Charles Kupchan, senior fellow for Europe Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Ukraine, among other nations, will surely watch the outcome of this crisis closely, according to Mr. Kupchan. US hopes of girdling Russia with Western-oriented governments now appear in question, as Moscow reasserts influence over its "near abroad."

US hopes that Russia would be essentially a benign economic partner may also have been dashed when Russian tanks rolled into Georgian territory.
"Victory in this war with no consequences for Russia will reinforce antidemocratic forces in Russia, increase the militarization of its foreign policy, and encourage Russia to take more risks elsewhere on its borders," says Stephen Jones, professor of Russian and Eurasian studies at Mount Holyoke College in South Hadley, Mass.

With the US far from the area of conflict, European attitudes will be crucial. Yet on Georgia and Russia, different European countries take different positions, and they have serious internal disagreements as well.
The European position tends to skew along lines of interest and history. Older European states, such as France and Germany, have strong economic and energy ties to Russia and see themselves as necessarily working with Moscow. Former Warsaw Pact states like Poland, Hungary, and the Baltic nations view Moscow with real suspicion based on bitter recent history as involuntary allies of the Soviet Union.

Britain, increasingly wary of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's Russia, takes a dim view of Moscow after a season of tensions and spats. East German-born Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, regards Prime Minister Putin at least as a question mark, but she has been skillful at pragmatic moves that have kept Berlin-Moscow relations strong.

"Nothing meaningful can be done as a matter of American policy if there is no consensus among European states that this represents something deeply shocking," says Mr. Sestanovich of the Council on Foreign Relations.

• Robert Marquand in Paris contributed to this report. Material from Associated Press was also used.

[source]

[orieleye]

Originally Posted by Arthur Gordon Pym

"Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century," said Mr. Bush in a statement televised shortly after his return to the US from the Beijing Olympics.

Bush and Israel are going to find it hard to 'take out' Iran after all this pontificating. Its nuclear program seems to have faded as an issue for the moment.

[ArMakedon]

I can't understand how Georgians are soooo naive

[Whiteruthenian]

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union its special services tried to prevent the desintegration by creating separatist movements in soviet republics. Those movements were supposed to threaten the soviet republics themselves with desintegration. Even in Belarus there was something like an attempt to do it. The problem of South Ossetia probably is the remainder of that times.

For some reasons Russia didn't want Georgia to pull out that splinter in Georgia's butt. Russian passports which were given to most South Ossetians. Russian money were spent to support that republic. Russians were in the South Ossetian government.

Because there is no way the regime in South Ossetia can be in any sense called "separatist." Who there is a separatist? The head of the local KGB, Anatoly Baranov, used to head the Federal Security Service (FSB) in the Russian Republic of Mordovia. The head of the South Ossetian Interior Ministry, Mikhail Mindzayev, served in the Interior Ministry of Russia's North Ossetia. The South Ossetian "defense minister," Vasily Lunev, used to be military commissar in Perm Oblast, and the secretary of South Ossetia's Security Council, Anatoly Barankevich, is a former deputy military commissar of Stavropol Krai. So who exactly is a separatist in this government? South Ossetian "prime minister" Yury Morozov?

Georgia had the right to remove the splinter.