Ageing UK needs 7m immigrants to survive

[Aptrgangr]

Ageing UK needs 7m immigrants to survive

Only an influx of workers from the East can help Britain's shrinking labour force support the post-war generation in retirement, says Christopher Johnson

Sunday May 13, 2007
The Observer

The discussion on climate change has distracted attention from another equally serious threat to economic growth: the ageing population.Industrialised countries face a 'double whammy': the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that, as a result of ageing, the 2.5 per cent per head growth rate its members have enjoyed over the past 30 years of the 20th century will fall to 1.7 per cent in the first 30 years of the 21st century.

The main effect of ageing on economic growth - as the 'baby boom' generation retires - is the reduction in the working population and an increase in the number of old people whom those in work have to support. The slowdown in future growth this implies must be addressed if pensioners are not to suffer even more than the economically active.The UK's rate of economic growth is forecast to drop from its current level of about 2.75 per cent a year to 2 per cent over the 40 years from 2015, according to the Treasury's long-term public finance report, as employment growth falls to zero and productivity continues at 2 per cent. Even this disappointing performance depends on the crucial assumption that net immigration will continue at 145,000 a year from now until 2055. This is less than the surge of the last two years, but it still means that the number of immigrants will increase by 7 million over the 50 years to 2055 - more than the entire current foreign-born population of about 6 million.

The enlargement of the EU has caused a shift in immigration to the UK as those emigrating from the Commonwealth are overtaken by those from other European countries - with a high proportion of Poles at present, to be followed possibly by a high proportion of Turks between now and 2055. Such immigrants are more likely to be skilled - and also to return home after a time - than those from more distant, developing countries. But as Lord Turner, chairman of the Pensions Commission, has pointed out, the UK needs to make much more preparation for an influx on this scale in terms of housing, education and infrastructure.

It is believed that immigrants will account for more than 70 per cent of the projected increase in the total UK population from 59.8 million in 2004 to 69.5 million in 2055. This population increase of 0.3 per cent a year will bring the GDP growth rate per head - a better measure of living standards - down to 1.7 per cent.

Immigrants, about half of them young and seeking work, will prevent the working UK population - and thus the GDP growth rate - from falling after 2015, when the 'baby boom' generation starts moving into retirement. Another important factor in shoring up GDP will be the contribution made by the existing UK labour force working until later in life. The increase in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 will add nearly 2 million to the working population - now about 37 million - and the gradual rise in state retirement age to 68 from 2024 will add another 850,000 to employment by 2055.

Much depends on how Britain's women measure up to the challenge. The participation rate for women of 50 to 59 rose from 60 to 69 per cent in the 20 years to 2005, and is projected to go on rising to 77 per cent by 2020. The theory is that women have been working into middle age in larger numbers, and that this will continue into older age groups.

Older women may participate more in the labour force - but if employers are unwilling to take them on, they will add to unemployment or take the option of retiring earlier on a lower pension, and the potential effect on output may be cancelled out. They may also want to work part-time or shorter hours, which could have the same adverse effect on output.

An additional way of increasing the labour force would be to accelerate the government's leisurely timetable for later retirement for both sexes. The state pension age is due to rise to 66 in 2024-26, then to 67 ten years after that, and to 68 in 2044-46. The government is also looking at ways to reduce the number of people claiming incapacity benefit - 2.7 million at present, far more than the 1.7 million officially unemployed.

The UK and its European partners have a choice of policies to prevent the slowdown in growth due to ageing. The Treasury's projection of an extra 5 per cent of GDP to be spent on pensions, health and long-term care before 2055 depends on its growth assumptions while targets for government deficits and debt are sustained. We need grey growth as well as green growth.

· Christopher Johnson is the former chief economic adviser to Lloyds Bank

Ageing UK needs 7m immigrants to survive | Business | The Observer

[Sergius]

Live and let die.

[Errigal]

Isn't it amazing that every adult knows where babies come from and yet so many can be made to believe that immigration is the only way to create young workers.

[DrStrangelove]

Yet again more propaganda , immigration is not the answer , the Uk is simply getting too divided with the native population if a definite minority .

the government etc used this excuse for the asian immgration and has no tried to use that excuse again for the recent eastern european migration .

Living in the Uk and being a young white person is that of an uncertain future , ill probs grow up to a country where i am in a strict minority , asians , west indians, eastern europeans , theres a massive culture clash already ..more immigrants would be a disaster

the Uk needs to stop immigration so survive

[Sergius]

Originally Posted by AFAS

Isn't it amazing that every adult knows where babies come from and yet so many can be made to believe that immigration is the only way to create young workers.

If only making babies wasn't such a tiresome and painful experience. No wonder it is going out of fashion.

[Errigal]

It is much more pleasurable to meet your new fellow citizens at the airport.

[DrStrangelove]

Originally Posted by AFAS

It is much more pleasurable to meet your new fellow citizens at the airport.

thats assuming they come by plane , some prefer the back of a lorry for instance

[Errigal]

Originally Posted by DrStrangelove

thats assuming they come by plane , some prefer the back of a lorry for instance

Either way it is a blessing. People should put an announcement in the paper "we are pleased to welcome a healthy 28 year old Nigerian into our big happy family. He will be named whatever he wants to be named."

[Waarnemer]

europa is slipping through our fingers

[Menydh]

Originally Posted by DrStrangelove

Yet again more propaganda , immigration is not the answer

Actually, it is partly right. Perhaps you didn't notice what it says that immigration is the answer to:

another equally serious threat to economic growth: the ageing population.

That's been going on for too long in England: economic growth beyond the country's natural and human resources. Which is attained through producing financial commodities instead of manufactured goods, and through the recruitment of foreign labour to substitute the indigenous labour lost to the financial trade. The pillars of the British Empire.

Originally Posted by DrStranglove

Living in the Uk and being a young white person is that of an uncertain future , ill probs grow up to a country where i am in a strict minority , asians , west indians, eastern europeans , theres a massive culture clash already ..more immigrants would be a disaster

the Uk needs to stop immigration so survive

You really think so? I doubt it that stopping immigration at this point alone would have much effect there.

Often when we speculate with the numbers of immigrants in the various countries, we fail to realize that, for Britain, a large share of the non native population is not "immigrant" if we define immigrant as a new or fairly new arrived foreign people. A large share of non natives are in fact British. British Afro-Caribbeans, British Welsh, British Asians, British Muslims, British Africans, British English.

Needless to say, British is not an ethnic concept but multi-ethnic. As are its political derivatives of U.K. or Commonwealth.

[Menydh]

Originally Posted by Ljubomir

If only making babies wasn't such a tiresome and painful experience. No wonder it is going out of fashion.

Well, it became burdensome the day that the first woman complained with the now usual: "and what about me?"

[DrStrangelove]

Then Maybe from an Economic point yes , it is a soloution , but this soloution while solving an economic problem will just lead to more "social problems"

[Errigal]

Originally Posted by Mynydd

Actually, it is partly right. Perhaps you didn't notice what it says that immigration is the answer to:

That's been going on for too long in England: economic growth beyond the country's natural and human resources. Which is attained through producing financial commodities instead of manufactured goods, and through the recruitment of foreign labour to substitute the indigenous labour lost to the financial trade. The pillars of the British Empire.

I read a comment on a British newspaper website which covered it well: "the goal of the current immigration policy is to keep property prices high and labour costs low". I would add that the "brazilianization" of the culture and ethnic make-up is a key goal too.

The "pyramid scheme" form of financial fraud is the model for a mass-immigration economy:

Pyramid scheme - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Originally Posted by Mynydd

You really think so? I doubt it that stopping immigration at this point alone would have much effect there.

Often when we speculate with the numbers of immigrants in the various countries, we fail to realize that, for Britain, a large share of the non native population is not "immigrant" if we define immigrant as a new or fairly new arrived foreign people. A large share of non natives are in fact British. British Afro-Caribbeans, British Welsh, British Asians, British Muslims, British Africans, British English.

Needless to say, British is not an ethnic concept but multi-ethnic. As are its political derivatives of U.K. or Commonwealth.

That is why France's phrase "Long live the Republic! Long live France!" is much healthier than the idea of Britishness. The state and the nation are two different things.

[Crvena zvezda]

Originally Posted by DrStrangelove

Then Maybe from an Economic point yes , it is a soloution , but this soloution while solving an economic problem will just lead to more "social problems"

Immigration (particularly mass immigration) is short term solution, long term it causes problems (especially if immigrants say) that is usually solved by more immigration. The myths and realities of immigration:

Economics of Immigration (The Economics of Immigration )

[DrStrangelove]

Originally Posted by Crvena zvezda

Immigration (particularly mass immigration) is short term solution, long term it causes problems (especially if immigrants say) that is usually solved by more immigration. The myths and realities of immigration:

Economics of Immigration (The Economics of Immigration )

i dont see how more immigration can solve the social problems in britain today , gang shootings stabbings etc (most of them involving blacks it has to be said ) plus eastern european organised crime , the steady increase in theft pickpocketing all commited by immigrants and yes white british as well . but would more immigration solve the Inequality , divsion and violence of britains cities ? i dont think so