More foreigners, less xenophobia

[Aptrgangr]

More foreigners, less xenophobia

How demography helps to solve a German problem by Gunnar Heinsohn


The new data Bielefeld's colleague Wilhelm Heitmayer reveals are depressing for any expert. 48.5 percent of Germany's population complains there were too many foreigner in the country. Admittedly the situation is less hopeless when considered these number was detected among ethnic Germans and not immigrants and foreigners.

Out of Germany's population of 83.5 millions people in 2005 just 67.1 are ethnic Germans. Out of these, 48.5% are comlaining over too many foreigners. But 34.6 millions ethnic Germans see it differently, and 15.4 millions foreigners are with them. So 50 millions relaxed people live in the land with 32.5 millions concerned over foreigners. Scientists from Bielefeld make clear schools are places where immigrant children experience exclusion. 60% of them either pass the secondary modern school-leaving-examination (lowest form of school-leaving-examination), or even not this one. Among the whole number of pupils they still are a minority and with this niveau of performance it is difficult to gain the respect from the majority they demand.
Will it remain this way?

In the year 2005, immigrants and foreigners, making 19% of the population, already give birth to 35% of babies born in Germany. When these children become sexually mature, and keep their above-average share of birthes of the year 2005, already in 2025 out of 100 newborn babies 65 will be of foreign origin.

Noone will be able to push these youngsters in a minority position when they make their way through kindergartens and schools. When these children continue to make low or none school-leaving-exams at the rate of 60%, there won't be a majority with lack of respect for low educated groups anymore anyway. The number of those failing in school
is growing, 16% of them gets social welfare benefits from birth on. The number of those children can double until 2025, and 1/3 of them will be given social welfare benefits from birth on. The Federal state of Bremen, adamentine in defending her last position in PISA levy, already can present 41 of 100 children being in this group, sovereignly topping this prediction already in 2005.

How small the minority of well educated will be in twenty years depends on the number of those willing to migrate leaving the country in reality. Already in 2005, 52% of the Germans in the age group 18-30 could imagine themselves living in a foreign country.
No miracle: Noone told them how 60 people working could be able to maintain more than 100 elderly, about 40 in the same age and their offsprings living from social welfare benefits, and to it their own children.

The ethnic Germans are becoming a minority, at first with their offsprings, in some decades in general. This continuously leads to a decreased number of those rejecting foreigners. So demography alone achieves what unsuccessfully is tried with billion-expensive programs.

The author is professor for genocide- and civilization studies in Bremen.

I translated an article appeared in dec18th 2006 in the Tagesspiegel