The End of Suburbia Documentary

[Sergius]

I watched this on danish television last night. a very intriguing documentary on the oil peak and the consequenses for america. I have very little authority on this area, so I will let you make your own judgements as for the probability of the facts in this video.

+ YouTube Video

edit: sorry, wrong subforum. I meant to post it in environment news.

[Menydh]

The video is a bit slow to download and it is long to watch. But it is excellent. A must see. I have rewinded parts of it once and again.

Like you say, people should make own judgements and draw conclusions from it.

Apart from the obvious (the energy crisis), it reinforces the idea that the conflicts in the Middle East are purposedly designed with a goal in mind.

Although the video deals exclusively with America, it is a crisis which will affect Europe and the rest of the world just as well. Whether it will have long-term negative or positive effects it is a matter of speculation.


P.S. It doesn't deal as much with Environment as it does with Economics. It could also go in the section of Geopolitics through derivation. I'll move it back to Economics and leave a link on Environment.

[Cristoforo]

Can you give me the Youtube url so that I can download the video because my internet connection is too slow to see the video streamed.

The topic of peak oil is one topic I really am interested it, bought 3/4 books about it too.

[Menydh]

If you click on the screen image (not on the play button) a new window or tab should open with the youtube url:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug&eurl=

[Menydh]

The original (longer) video is no longer available on youtube. Here are some tracks in bits and pieces.

[MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTIMsbR1-s8[/MEDIA]
[MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM[/MEDIA]

[MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r17begefKA[/MEDIA]
[MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GD9vVonPWs[/MEDIA]
[MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M43dQXaGx_o[/MEDIA]

[Menydh]

The second part to The End of Suburbia.

[MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2y9BbNjLAY[/MEDIA]

[MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuYOymcCqAc[/MEDIA]
[MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbeC4AIIo7A[/MEDIA]

[MEDIA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4xEsBy2rIw[/MEDIA]

[bombadillo]

Originally Posted by Mynydd

Although the video deals exclusively with America, it is a crisis which will affect Europe and the rest of the world just as well. Whether it will have long-term negative or positive effects it is a matter of speculation.

It won't affect Europe in the same way. The design of postwar USA has been predicated on cheap oil -- housing, work, transit, shopping have all been built around the automobile and highway. As the video makes clear. European cities, in contrast, are more compact, more accessible to cyclists and pedestrians, and have better mass transit. In the case of the USA, the country will come to a shuddering halt. And these monkeys haven't even planned for it. Carter established a strategy to reduce dependence on foreign oil and increase energy use efficiency, but it was scrapped by Reagan and has never been resurrected since. The Americans, with 5% of the world's population, consume 25% of its energy. And this use shows no signs of abating.

My guess is that because of expensive energy, all of us will move towards some sort of subsistence economy, perhaps based on barter. The world's population will probably also take a nosedive (including in Europe) towards more sustainable levels. But this is conjecture.

[Menydh]

Originally Posted by bombadillo

It won't affect Europe in the same way. The design of postwar USA has been predicated on cheap oil -- housing, work, transit, shopping have all been built around the automobile and highway. As the video makes clear. European cities, in contrast, are more compact, more accessible to cyclists and pedestrians, and have better mass transit. In the case of the USA, the country will come to a shuddering halt. And these monkeys haven't even planned for it.

It sounds right. Thinking about my own area, traditionally small towns and villages are built within reasonable reach of bigger towns, and well connected in between them, all of them eventually converging in the main city...

Towers of the Serranos, which was since the Middle Ages the entrance of the peoples coming into the City of Valencia, from the nearby sierras


Not to speak of the North and South Orchards, which are within walking distance from the city. Although this I believe that it is a unique case in Europe, which is being preserve for its cultural value and for the love that the still left traditional Valencians have for our Orchards.


Areas like the one in the following picture with the tomato plants, are in the outskirts of the city, still today.

My guess is that because of expensive energy, all of us will move towards some sort of subsistence economy, perhaps based on barter.

Well, I'm sure that things won't get as far as to get us all into barter economies..

But some local bartering practices next to a money exchange economy, is very possible. Though only at local level.

The world's population will probably also take a nosedive (including in Europe) towards more sustainable levels. But this is conjecture.

I don't know in other countries, but over here in Spain (and especially in this area) the change should bring a reestablishment of good old levels of quality life.

[bombadillo]

Originally Posted by Mynydd

Well, I'm sure that things won't get as far as to get us all into barter economies..

But some local bartering practices next to a money exchange economy, is very possible. Though only at local level.

I don't know in other countries, but over here in Spain (and especially in this area) the change should bring a reestablishment of good old levels of quality life.

My own hunch is that the global system of finance, production, and exchange will collapse (or come close to it). The medieval population of Europe used to be around 60-70 million, which I think is what Europe can bear (instead of the 400 million+ we have today).

Nothing wrong with barter. We may not have exotic fruits coming from South America but we can do without. At least we'll be off that crazy treadmill of production and consumption.

[Menydh]

Originally Posted by bombadillo

My own hunch is that the global system of finance, production, and exchange will collapse (or come close to it). The medieval population of Europe used to be around 60-70 million, which I think is what Europe can bear (instead of the 400 million+ we have today).

I agree in that the current population is grown out of proportions. This creates additional problems, like that we are overexploiting (and draining) our natural resources and it incides negatively in our quality of life.

That's one reason why I don't see immigration and the low demographic trends of native Europeans, as the final grave. At the current figures minus non-natives, we are still alright if we except the disproportion between the young and the old population. And still does not a problem with the right mentality.

The right mentality... well, imagine a post-war situation where a country or countries are devastated (as in Spain in post-Civil War or Europe in post-World War) and much of the young population has been lost in the war front. Could you imagine under such strain what it would have been if people back then had focused on retirement and other social benefits?

Instead they focused on reconstruction. A post-immigration Europe (i.e. a Europe where immigrants were returned to their places of origin) would be a not too different scenario.

The European population is much larger than that figure you gave. The population of the European Union is of near 500 million, of which in between 10 and 15% must be immigrants. So right, the figure approaches 400 million for the E.U. Russia has a population of 141.3 million, of which around 70% are ethnic Russians. Ukraine has a population of 47 million, with similar percentages of ethnic Ukrainians. Belarus has a population of 10 million, of which some 80% are ethnic Belarusians. That makes a total of between 85 and 89 million people (some of the non-ethnic nationals are e.g. ethnic Russians in Ukraine and Belarus, ethnic Ukrainians in Russia and Belarus, or ethnic Ukrainian in Russia).

That puts the figure back in some total 500 million native Europeans.

While such a figure can (and should) be reduced, this shouldn't be overstated. A 60-70 million, or even 100 million or whatever the demographics were in the Middle Ages is much unrealistic. You also have to count with "the others".

India alone has a population of 1.2 billion (billion here means 1 thousand millions, for those who use billion as 1 million of millions). China's population is of 1.3 billion. And Islam's total population is of 1.5 billion Muslims spread around the World. And, what's Sub-Saharan Africa's demographics? 300 million?

You cannot seriously expect to surive with a population of 60-70 million.

Nothing wrong with barter.

Let us not confuse an economy where the added value of speculation is no longer, with a barter economy.