Lights and shadows of łukašism

[Whiteruthenian]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...379727,00.html

Offering Asylum in Chernobyl's No Man's Land

By Volker ter Haseborg in Minsk

The dictator of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, is making a cynical offer to refugee asylum seekers. You can stay here, but only if you live in the No Man's Land created by the Chernobyl disaster.

Volker ter Haseborg

Sladria lost her homeland when she was seven. She fled war-torn Afghanistan with her parents and six brothers and sisters, with the aim of coming to the West. After first reaching Kazakhstan, they headed towards Europe. But where they actually ended up was Belarus. That may be Europe geographically speaking, but not politically. "We can't get to the West," says Sladria, who is now 17 years old. The borders to the new EU member states of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania are closed, she explains.

Sladria works in a facility for children of migrants in Minsk. Together with other children, the young girl embroiders tablecloths and oven gloves in return for a little bit of pocket money. Her parents have no time for her, as both have to work in order to provide for the seven children. Sometimes, Sladria says when the state-hired supervisor is out of earshot, people call her names and curse her because of her dark skin color. In the capital of Belarus, some here argue, there is no space for foreigners (I would say - there should never be! - WR) -- and people like Sladria are unwanted (Yeah, it's quite sure! - WR).

According to the wishes of the Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, more than 200,000 refugees will soon be removed from cities like Minsk, Brest and Grodno. Their new home will be a place in which not even the poorest Belarussians would want to live.

Lukashenko wants to settle 22,000 immigrants in the area around Gomel. They will be able to live in the places abandoned by the population who once lived there. And straightaway they would receive asylum status, which would formally grant them the same rights as Belarussians.

But the real reason for this new conciliatory tone has nothing to do with looking after minority interests. Gomel is about 130 kilometers north of Chernobyl and is one of the areas most affected by radiation after the nuclear reactor disaster of 1986. With this new settlement policy Lukashenko wants to transform the contaminated area into a region of economic prosperity.

A radioactive political issue

Radiation scientists are appalled by Lukashenko's latest deal. "From a medical point of view this policy is insane," said Sebastian Pflugbeil, president of the German Society for Radiation Protection. Pflugbeil knows the area around Gomel and, with other scientists, has been involved in work in the region since the 1990s.

Belarus is thought to be the country which was most affected by the Chernobyl catastrophe. The wind carried about 70 percent of the radioactive emissions from the reactor meltdown across Belarus. "Children in the area around Gomel are 55 times more likely to suffer from thyroid cancer than the average. For adults the risk is five to six times higher," said Pflugbeil.

As things stand, the World Health Organization already predicts that one in three of the young people who were no older than four years old in 1986 will at some point in their lives suffer from thyroid cancer. Nevertheless, Pflugbeil has observed that, during the past few years, more and more people are settling in the region around Gomel.

"People move there because they are left in peace," he said. "Another reason is they can choose the nicest of all the empty houses." The once prohibited zone is especially popular among impoverished veterans of the wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya. Now, Lukashenko is exploiting these people and others like them in an effort to give a boost to the devastated area with his new settlement policy. "Lukashenko wants to draw a line under the Chernobyl catastrophe and allow the area to regain its economic value." The government is especially keen to get the agricultural sector back on its feet again. Berries and mushrooms, which absorb radiation especially well, flourish here. Pflugbeil's criticism is that the Belarussian authorities are trying to play down the impact of the radiation. In fact the effects of the radiation are being felt much longer than originally thought. "It's criminal," says the president of the German Society for Radiation Protection.

2 million illegal immigrants wait to get in

Originally, Lukashenko wanted to wave refugees like Sladria's family straight on through to the European Union. Afghans, Pakistanis and Vietnamese -- in Lukashenko's eyes all nuclear-weapon armed criminals -- should go to the West. In the dictator's eyes this would be a possible revenge for the EU's refusal to nurture political relations with him.

Meanwhile, the EU is preparing to defend itself against a flood from the east. According to a report by the German intelligence agency this year, up to 2 million illegal immigrants are waiting to travel West in the "black triangle" -- the area between Moscow, Kiev and Minsk. In 2003, the EU allocated €400 million for efforts to increase security at its outermost borders. A new agency for protection of the outer frontier has also been set up.

Belarus plays a particular role in the EU plans. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), every year 40,000 people pass through Belarus as they try to get to the West. At 1,128 kilometers, the former Soviet republic's border with the EU is the longest frontier to the expanded Union. That is why the UN and the EU invest €5 million in border controls. There are watchdogs on the border crossings, and a computer system to track illegal immigrants is about to be set up.

But none of that helps the refugees, who find themselves trapped on the other side of the border in a country that doesn't want them. Throughout Belarus they get names shouted at them and are sometimes even beaten up. Outside of Gomel, nobody in Belarus seems willing to allow them to make a home here.

It's a bitter situation -- one that Pflugbeil addresses with gallow's humor. "The region around Gomel is certainly very beautiful," he said. "Just as long as you don't have a Geiger counter."

[Menydh]

Funny that they call him dicatator as if it was something bad, when he is doing exactly what the Belarusian people want him to do while the democratic leaders elsewhere do exactly what they want, not what the people want.

The telling of the 7 children family is touching, sure. But so is the Belarusian families who don't have more children because they don't expect the state to fund them having children. Even when they would be in their right.

[svin]

Well, Lukashenko is certainly NOT nationalist. I wonder, if he has some similiarities with Franco?

[Menydh]

Well, General Franco was a Patriot. Certainly not a Nationalist. He was not a "Fascist" either. He was an army general (and "africanist" at that.. Africanists were those who had served long in N. Africa and differed somehow from their colleagues in the mainland) and a stateman.

Given the special circumstances, one could argue if he could have done things better but not that he did things wrong.

[Whiteruthenian]

I think it is probably a mismatch here:

According to the wishes of the Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, more than 200,000 refugees will soon be removed from cities like Minsk, Brest and Grodno. Their new home will be a place in which not even the poorest Belarussians would want to live.

Lukashenko wants to settle 22,000 immigrants in the area around Gomel.

Both the first sentence and the third one mean the same, so either the first number or the second one is incorrect. The second one (22,000) looks more probable. Volker ter Haseborg added a zero just for beauty, I think.

As far as I know at the moment it is preferred to send illegal immigrants to Russia, because they come mostly from Russia, but some asylum seekers already live in that No Man's Land.

Our beloved father is a strange fellow. Does he hope the level of radiation prevents them from reproducing themselves like rabbits? If it is so, this particular decision is almost racist.

The most disgusting sentence here is:

And straightaway they would receive asylum status, which would formally grant them the same rights as Belarussians.

I hope Łukašenka is going to keep them in that place somehow. On the one hand it’s a good idea that they wouldn’t live together with Belarusians, on the other hand Belarusian land, even polluted by radiation, still remains Belarusian.

Interesting that some time ago this idea came to my mind. The lifeless area is an ideal place for people (not only foreigners) who the Belarusian nation doesn’t need. Later I read the same idea in a nationalist newspaper. I wonder if it means that Łukašenka reads the same newspapers as I do?

Of course, if this area was a kind of Bantustan or… concentration camp , I might accept it, but I still believe that sending those asylum seekers back to their countries is the best way to solve the problem. (By the way, this shows that if we can afford to keep immigrants from our towns and villages, hence in fact we don’t need additional workers for our economy, and the main argument for allowing immigration is nothing but a myth.)

Originally Posted by svin

Well, Lukashenko is certainly NOT nationalist. I wonder, if he has some similiarities with Franco?

You know, it’s hard to explain. Ten years ago things were simpler - Łukašenka was going to sell our independence for Russian oil, and every nationalist must have considered him the main enemy, but now… Probably all these years he have been realizing his secret economic program “kisses (with Yeltsin) for Russian oil” An example: I know that it was decided more than 12 years ago to refuse using our own currency, but we still use the Belarusian ruble and it seems we aren’t going to give it up. (In fact Łukašenka could refuse using it years ago.) It’s easy to believe now that Łukašenka is really a defender of our independence, but I never thought of him as of ‘defender of our race’. In many senses he is more nationalist than many Belarusians, but it would be more correct to say that he is not a Belarusian nationalist but rather Soviet Belarusian nationalist . (Such identity he has.) And it is his (and our) main problem, because Soviet Belarusian identity has no future.

Originally Posted by Mynydd

Funny that they call him dicatator as if it was something bad, when he is doing exactly what the Belarusian people want him to do while the democratic leaders elsewhere do exactly what they want, not what the people want.

He is mainly populist, besides this fellow from the countryside has some peasant common sense. I’m far from supporting everything he does, but it’s stupid to deny that on the whole he is not bad as a leader; his regime has some pluses.

[Menydh]

Originally Posted by Whiteruthenian

He is mainly populist, besides this fellow from the countryside has some peasant common sense. I’m far from supporting everything he does, but it’s stupid to deny that on the whole he is not bad as a leader; his regime has some pluses.

For practical purposes, he seems to be keeping Belarusia from the suicidal policies which have spread like a virus throughout Europe as a whole, from Moscow to Lisbon. That should be more than good enough for Belarusians to support him whether they agree with everything he does, or not.

The way things are I would suspect of any nationalist movement which was set to oppose him, as a destabilizing agent.

[Whiteruthenian]

Originally Posted by Mynydd

For practical purposes, he seems to be keeping Belarusia from the suicidal policies which have spread like a virus throughout Europe as a whole, from Moscow to Lisbon. That should be more than good enough for Belarusians to support him whether they agree with everything he does, or not.

The way things are I would suspect of any nationalist movement which was set to oppose him, as a destabilizing agent.

Some time ago you wrote about our luck. I don’t know what I can say about our luck. Our main luck, it seems, that Łukašenka has some sense of responsibility for everything he does (to God and his own conscience ). He voluntary accepted this responsibility and even after 12 years of his presidency more than half of Belarusians agree with this situation. In 90s it was easy to transform democracy into autocracy – he needed only some adventurism and impudence and he had them. As he said once - there is only one politician in Belarus; it’s true - hardly even 20% of Belarusians know the name of our prime minister, for instance. That’s why we always know who is to blame for all the policies here. But have we deserved such a situation somehow?

Yes I’m also afraid of destabilisation – only because instead of Łukašenka we can easily get something much more terrible (democracy, for instance ). Unfortunatelly few nationalists here understand it.

Our main misfortune is that Soviet Belarusian identity. Łukašenka’s attempts to renew, support and develop it only weaken our nation; as it deprives our new generations of solid ground under their feet, therefore it remains a threat to our future. This is the field where we must fight and where we can (even easily) win. Again – the main problem is that most people-who-called-themselves-nationalists don’t understand even it.

It would be cool if Łukašenka kept our counry ‘frosen’ till the ideological bases of ‘western civilization’ begin to collapse. It would be incredible luck.

[Susi]

This article is interesting because it brings up the flaws in "human interest" reporting. They have to have the usual story about the "victim" and the "scientific" backup of some scientist, somewhere. Doesn't matter what country. So long as they say it is bad. Then there are the numbers and the "oh, it's so bad, why doesn't someone do something about it?"...

In my opinion, the Belarussians (did I spell that right? I hope I didn't get it wrong) can do whatever they want within their country. It's theirs.

I wonder.. is the scenery in Belarus beautiful? Maybe I'll come to visit one day...

[Arthur Gordon Pym]

Belarus, the only country of Europe not yet enslaved by the Yankee Judaean tyranny.

[Kangar]

AGL - anti-grey leader ...power of the word greys is redused in Belarus. Belarussian nation is setteled during Lukashenko period...that's for belarussians became more white than latvians! ..do you like Belarus flowing in crap?

[Whiteruthenian]

An old article but it can give general understanding how and why it works. The full article is here: The Belarusian opposition: condemned to death?

Original article in Ukrainian by Serhiy Hrabovskyi

[...] The major reason is that Lukashenko’s regime managed not only to declare but to create an effective socio-economic policy, and to create-- like his predecessors Hitler, Kadar, Tito, Deng Xiao Ping -- a real socialist market economy, more effective than spontaneous, "wild" capitalism, the oligarchic system, or Stalin’s planned socialist economy.

What has Lukashenko built in Belarus?

[...] As for the economic basis of modern Belarus, it really is “market socialism” (not to be confused with the social market economy of the Germans, Scandinavians or Canadians!).

In Belarus, all economic levers, key enterprises and banks remain in the hands of the state directly, either through controlling stock or other forms of control.

At the same time, small and mid-sized private capital is allowed to exist in the state, and it is able to follow the market rules, but it must remain fully loyal to the government and be ready to follow the economic directives of the ruling clique if necessary.

At the same time the state provides high living standards to its citizens (high not in comparison with developed countries, but with neighboring states which live on the verge of socio-economic collapse). Therefore, the Belarusian people, when comparing themselves to their neighbors, feel the concern of their leader in real terms and are grateful that the dictator works for them.

Economic analysis

And now let’s examine the socio-economic basis of the Lukashenko regime's stability.

Here are some official data for today and tomorrow. Belarus in 2020 may increase GDP twice as much out of 2005, according to Economy Minister Nikolay Zaychenko who submitted the project of National Strategy of Stable Development up to 2020. Under the project, investment share in GDP must grow 2,4-2,6 times as much, that allows to modernize production on the basis of progressive technologies.

At the same time the share of services in economy structure must grow from 44% up to 52% in accordance with world tendency, and share of labour remuneration in GDP will grow from 36% up to 39-40%. Number of people having incomes below cost of living may decrease from 30% up to 15%. In general GDP per capita under purchasing-power parity in Byelorussia is to be increased from 30% up to 70% out of the similar index of the Central European countries.

This was, so to speak, the optimistic view the governmental officials should share.

And here is the traditional view of pessimists from International Monetary Fund. The IMF forecasts GDP growth in Belarus in 2006 by 4%, inflation rate to be 12,5%, in 2005 GDP growth will make 7,1% and inflation around 12,1%.

The truth is somewhere in the middle. At least, last year GDP growth was 11%, despite IMF forecasted only 7% at the beginning of year and 10% in autumn (the same season as the prognosis for the coming year mentioned above).

Indeed, growth rate of 6-7% during 15 years enables to double GDP, growth rate of 5% to approach it (in fact annually every 5% rest upon the enlarged basis).

So, does "Belarusian economic miracle" really exist? Did Lukashenko succeed to create something more effective, than democracy? Not at all. Simply a successful socialistic market enables to the totalitarian state to look better only in comparison with adjoining states experiencing economic slump, but cannot be compared with countries based on real social market economy and political democracy.

But still Belarusian economy, no doubt, is more effective than Ukrainian clan-oligarchic or Russian clan-chekist models.

Say, last year's GDP growth in Belarus was based on so-called "real sector", i.e. 52% of growth was ensured by industry, construction, agriculture, transport. 12% of population were employed in agricultural sector, they produced 10,7% of national product that provided increase of 12,9%.

Nevertheless, at large farm-market agricultures (collective and state farms) increase is higher, than in the small farms. Actually, it is natural, if economic mechanisms really work. So Byelorussian industry last year reached 130% out of 1990 level with 15,9% growth. It produces cars, busses, trolleybuses, tractors, television sets, radio sets, make optical and microelectronics devices up to the artificial heart valves.

Certainly, this production cannot be compared with American or Japanese goods. But under price-and-quality ratio considerable part of Byelorussian products are quite competitive in foreign markets. Consequently, Belarusian tractors "Belarus”, a little improved soviet specimen, work in Ukrainian villages instead of developed by domestic designers top-quality tractor "Ukrayinets".

The same situation is with MAZ [Minsk Automobile Works] buses, which are widely used all over Ukraine. Ukraine’s LAZ [Lviv Automobile Works] buses are highly competitive in the market, but LAZ cannot make good use of its potential abilities, whereas MAZ increased buses production by 44% in 2004. At that they become cheaper and 90% of MAZ production is exported to Russia.

Striking fact: last year MAZ produced 20.500 tractors, tippers, timber carrying vessels, etc. (20% growth), whereas all Russia motor works put out only 13.700 machineries.

One can say that Russia is loyal to Belarus supplying it cheap gas and petrol. But this loyalty is the result of negotiations on the verge of blackmail: when Moscow had suddenly decided to price out energy resources for Belarus, Lukashenko immediately raised a question of withdrawal from the country the Russian air defense forces. As to build them anew costs Russia USD 25 milliard, Moscow will surely keep moderate prices on energy resources for Minsk for a long time.

To draw a conclusion I would like to say that any economic system, even so sluggish as Soviet, is better, than the total state ownership division, which was carried out in Ukraine by Leonid Kuchma, and is going on until now.

One more interesting detail: Ukraine’s economy has practically exhausted reserves of renewable growth that means it needs radical updating to resume the normal rates of GDP growth. Yet Belarus has partly modernized its facilities thanks to the dictator Lukashenko.
Nothing new: Hitler, by the way, also successfully modernized German industry in the 1930s...

Lukashenko’s socialism

Byelorussian language and culture are in disfavour, for the only Minsk lyceum, teaching in Byelorussian, is closed. But in Minsk a new National library was built, and radio stations should broadcast no less than 70% of musical repertoire in Byelorussian. (Unfortunately the author is mistaken - as far as I know there should be no less than 70% of Belarusian singers - in our case this difference is important. - WR)The question is about two different projects of Belarusian national culture, one of "bourgeois-nationalistic" intelligentsia (Like me. - WR), other of the president.

And it is clear, why the last project wins: it is promoted by the developed socialism of Lukashenko. (It may be true. - WR)

Say, government expenses of Belarus on the health protection make 4,8% of GDP, in Russia 3,7% of GDP, as for Ukraine it is better to keep mum. The average amount of oldage pension in Ukraine has become equal to Belarusian in dollars only this year, but we should count that there housing services charge is much less. Average wage in Byelorussia amounts around USD 250, the sum Ukrainians can earn only in Kyiv.

At the end of 2004 GDP per capita in Belarus and Russia equalized and made about USD 8.500. Of course, it is not much, but Lukashenko had lately returned 70% of Oshchadbank savings both to all the citizens of Belarus and Ukrainians who saved their money in Belarusian banks in 1991.

As for social sphere, Lukashenko successfully follows his predecessors, as he does not allow social objects to be transferred out of the balances of enterprises to state or local budgets or to be privatized. The majority of the Belarusian enterprises, unlike Russian, kept their hostels, sanatorium-preventoriums, aid posts, preschool institutions, gymnasiums and others like that.

Besides, unemployment rate in Belarus is the lowest among the neighbours – only 2%, similarly as in Hitler Germany in the middle of the 1930th. German leader, indeed, except social goods for workers and rapid economic growth, had provided the highest decent living standards of then Europe, yet Lukashenko never manages to do it.

To kill a dragon

All said above does not mean in any case, that the author is the supporter of Lukashenko’s political-economical model of society. The point is of those economical and social models of adjoining states, such as Russia, Ukraine or Latvia (except Poland and Lithuania), which do not arouse desire to follow their example.

Consequently Belarusian president, playing successfully on geopolitical problems of Russia and NATO, manages to get preferences to develop Byelorussian economy and to gain new export markets for domestic goods, including illegal export of weapon to "the hot sports" world-wide.

Until the state provides economic stability through social guarantees, building state apartments, paying salaries to teachers enough to save money and to go to the Crimea on holiday (unlike the ordinary Ukrainian teacher) and the difference in social status of citizens is not sharp, the incumbent regime will not be overthrown by general elections, wherein Lukashenko can easily use administrative resource.

No wonder the majority of Belarusians tend to be sluggish, inactive, depressed or short-sighted. ( - WR) In the Third Reich people behaved the same way that pushed Erich Fromm to write the book "Escape from Freedom". It is usual, when an ordinary man prefers stability, government protection and quiet life in the state, which guaranties minimum of consumer goods to political and cultural freedom voluntarily. [...]

[Arthur Gordon Pym]

No wonder the majority of Belarusians tend to be sluggish, inactive, depressed or short-sighted. In the Third Reich people behaved the same way that pushed Erich Fromm to write the book "Escape from Freedom".

Excellent. Bullshit of the year.