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Originally Posted by Strengthandhonour
I saw an interesting documentary about this the other day. The pro-union individuals made some really strong points about staying together, specially when it came to wealth.
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The situation is very "tight", and no matter the outcome, the winners will have a hard situation:
-should the independentists win, they'll have a (at least) 40% population against the break of the union, already willing to claim their enclaves and separate territories, including ethnic Albanians who are pro-secessionist but express strong desires to seceding their ethnic areas as soon as Montenegro gains full independence
-should the unionists win, they'll have a (at least) 40% population that is anti-union, and already asks for a new referendum after three years, should this fail. And since the anti-unions are in power in Montenegro, that would definitely mean problems in functioning of the union for the next three years, similar to those in the last period when many decisions could not be made since the concensus lacked
The best for Montenegro would be if the results of the referendum could be "extreme", meaning that vast majority of the population chooses one option, no matter which.
By the referendum law in Montenegro, 55% of votes is required for secession and Montenegrin citizens living in Serbia for more than two years (app 200,000 of them) are not allowed to vote, while pro-independentist Serbs living in Montenegro for more than two years are.
A difficult call. We shall see the results Sunday evening.