Quite
Basically, the IRA have been disarming for the last decade. Now they have virtually disbanded, IMO (although not in so many words and not officially).
Meanwhile, there is still a host of fully armed Loyalist paramilitaries still running about who have been responsible for the majority of violence for years now.
We are at the same situation as we were in 1969.
The IRA had called off the "armed struggle" and given itself upto constitutional politics. The Loyalists saw a vulnerable Nationalist communiti in the north and started pogroms, burning out entire streets and districts, prompting a stream of refugees over the border into the Republic. The Six Counties was basically plunged into a bout of ethnic cleansing. The Irish Army actually got so far as to position itself along the border, ready to commence an invasion of Northern Ireland to restore order. Dublin lost it's nerve however, and the invasion never went ahead.
At this point, northern militant members of the IRA formed the Provisional IRA, regrouped, and took up arms in defense of the Nationalist communities. Eventually, the British army went in to restore order.
Despite the bombings and shootings, the presence of the IRA ( ie. Provisional IRA) has provided a counter-balance and kept the Loyalists in check. True, there has been constant tit-for-tat violence and the occasional "atrocity". But without them, the place may plunge back into civil war. It hinges on how the Loyalists respond.
Added to that, the prospect of disgrunteled provos joining dissident Republican groups, taking their weapons and expertise with them, and we have a very delicate situation at the moment.