Rejection could trigger wave of poll postponements
Financial Times
June 1, 2005
A Dutch No vote in tonight's referendum could triggera wave of countries calling off their own polls on the EU constitution, diplomats in Brussels believe.
Britain is certain to postpone its own poll, and its decision could lead to a rethink in other countries including the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland and Poland.
"If Britain postpones its poll, then others could follow," admitted one senior EU official. "It could all become very messy."
The issue will come to a head at an EU summit on June 16-17, with some countries including France and Germany insisting that ratification of the treaty should continue.
However a decisive Dutch No vote following the 55-45 per cent rejection of the treaty in France last Sunday will throw the future of the constitution into doubt.
President Jacques Chirac of France and Jan Peter Balkenende, Dutch prime minister, would come under pressure at the summit to explain how they intended to overturn their No votes.
They would also be told there is no question of renegotiating the text - a point stressed by Gerhard Schröder, German chancellor.
Tony Blair, Britain's prime minister, has decided that a UK referendum would be impossible until France reverses its No vote, probably by a second referendum.
That is seen as unlikely before the French presidential elections in 2007 and some believe that the constitution will never be revived.
Mr Blair will use the likely Dutch No to justify his decision to fellow EU leaders, especially if there are signs that Dutch Yes supporters were demoralised by the French rejection and failed to turn out.
"How can we mobilise a Yes campaign in Britain - let alone the Yes vote - if the treaty appears to be dead after a French and Dutch No?" asked one UK official.
Six other EU countries intend to ratify the treaty by referendum, with No votes likely to be strongest in the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland and Poland.
Each of those countries is sticking to the official EU line that the ratification should continue, as are Luxembourg and Portugal, which would be expected to vote Yes.
However even Luxembourg, home of many EU institutions, has seen a collapse in the Yes camp in recent weeks.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Danish prime minister, said yesterday he wanted a clear signal that France would not try to renegotiate the treaty, to make it more protective of its social model. "If we are going to move ahead [with the referendum] it will be about the treaty as we know it today and nothing else."
The UK government believed there were distinct differences in Dutch and French opposition to the European Union constitutional treaty that pointed to a deep schism in Europe, diplomats in the Hague said yesterday. That difference would prove decisive in determining whether Britain called off plans for a referendum on the treaty next year, said one diplomat. "The Netherlands is not another France," he said. "The Netherlands follows the British view on things like economic reform, and is generally pro-Atlanticist."
If the Netherlands voted No, "you will have two results from two different countries and it is that fact that raises profound questions [in Britain] about the future of Europe".
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