[Exeter]

Of course, for the Tories to run ‘neck and neck’ they would have to avail themselves of the services of a great many more voters than would Labour. This is the other reason the election is loaded, the reason I alluded to earlier. If both Labour and the Tories emerge on the glad morn of 6 May with 34 per cent each of the vote, then Labour will have 343 seats and the Tories will have 201. Mr Blair would remain in office with a nice majority of about 40 seats. To an outside observer — say, someone from the electoral monitoring unit of Zanu-PF — this would seem a bit of a paradox and even perhaps grounds for suspicion. In a fair system, on 34 per cent, Labour and the Tories would each have 272 seats. But not here.

According to Peter Kellner, this is partly because Labour has had above-average swings in the constituencies where it matters most — but also because, as a result of the Boundary Commission, safe Labour seats consist of small electorates which enjoy lower turnouts. The Boundary Commission, Kellner suggests, always lags behind changes in the national demography. Which, again, is lucky for Labour. In the end, it takes 22,000 votes to elect a Tory MP and only 16,000 to elect a Labour MP.

Within the next couple of days or so, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, an offshoot of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, will decide whether or not to bother monitoring our general election. Britain? It’s safe as houses, isn’t it? I suggested that perhaps they might like to swing by for a day or so. I wonder how they think we compare to Kiev.