[AzzurroItalia]

Mastella wants to be Samson. Knowing that he has permanently now lost his prestigious ministry in the government, he will bring the whole administration down with him. I assure you, had Mastella still had his Justice Ministry, he wouldn't have dared caused the government crisis.

With the referendum coming, it remains to be seen whether Mastella can return to the fold, or will honor his threat to formally bring the government into crisis. Of course, I'm hoping, but I'm also very fearful. Prodi is most certainly not stupid, and his calling for a verification is his way of buying as much time as possible - perhaps to strike a deal with senators or parties on something like the electoral law.

For instance, he may offer the UDC the government's complete support on an electoral law German-style (with alliances formed after the election), and in return, Thursday, the UDC may be conveniently have some senators missing for the vote of confidence, thereby ensuring the government's survival. Or perhaps one that inflates regional representation, assuring Mastella a place in parliament. Either way, it's like a market, and Prodi wants votes.

To be honest, I'm terrified. Terrified that Prodi successfully buys senators that would support the government. He would never be ashamed of doing such a deed, no matter how underhanded it is. We'll have to wait and see...

Currently, assuming everything goes as predicted, Prodi should be only be able to count on at most 160 senators against the opposition's 160 (officially 'rejecting' the confidence vote). That is, his 158 - 3 Udeur senators (155), - Turigliatto, a Communist senator, bringing it down to 154. Adding to that at six life senators that always support Prodi (the last, Pinifarina would never - I hope - vote to aid Prodi, he has not to date), the total should be 160. The center-right, however, has its 156, + Turigliatto (157), + 3 Udeur senators, and that should be 160-160.

The government also may have difficulties with Fisichella, 3 "diniani", and Rossi, though the latter almost always supports the government, and I don't believe the first four are intentioned at all to let the government fall, no matter what they've declared to date.

But I expect some kind of surprise to aid Prodi at the last second, and that infuriates me. Perhaps I'm too pessimistic. What do you think, Breha?