[Marulus]

Serbs choosing course in watershed election

By Ellie Tzortzi Sat Jan 19, 2008

BELGRADE (Reuters) - Pro-Western president Boris Tadic and hardline challenger Tomislav Nikolic vie in elections on Sunday that will decide who drives Serbia's response to the trauma of the expected breakaway of its Kosovo region.

Opinion polls ahead of a first-round ballot gave Nikolic a slim lead over Tadic, but not enough for a knockout victory.

The winner of the February 3 run-off will be the candidate who can attract third-party votes with promises of better living standards, jobs and the defense of Kosovo, heading for independence with Western backing within months.

Tadic says the way to handle all that is through closer ties with the West. He opposes independence of Kosovo, seen by Serbs as their historic heartland, but favors signing a first-level agreement with the European Union even if the bloc takes over Kosovo's supervision as a prelude to recognizing the territory.

Nikolic, whose Radical Party supported the policies of late autocrat Slobodan Milosevic in the war-torn 1990s, puts his money on Russia.

"There is a risk of the return of the old guard that led Serbia into conflicts and isolation during the 1990s and led people into turmoil and uncertainty," Tadic said of a Nikolic victory.

"But I am certain the people will not allow this, they will vote for stability and economic progress, for a better life for their families."

UN PROTECTORATE

Nikolic, who has toned down his rhetoric to appeal to moderates as well as the one third of Serbs who live just over the poverty line, has rejected accusations of isolationism and war-mongering.

"I have not said goodbye to the West," he told a rally this week. "I said we could be with you, and that we can sign whatever you want, but do not touch Serbia.

"Serbia has its borders."

Kosovo has been a United Nations protectorate since 1999, when NATO expelled Serb troops accused of atrocities against ethnic Albanians there while fighting a guerrilla war.

Indications by the U.S. and most EU member states that they will recognize Kosovo as independent within months have irked Serbs who feel the country has paid enough for its role in the wars of the 1990s, and could win nationalists more votes.

Polls suggest Nikolic will win 33 percent of the first-round vote, with Tadic around 30 percent.

Three others are seen winning about six percent each. They include the only candidate, Cedomir Jovanovic, prepared to tell Serbs Kosovo is lost and the country should move on.

Half of the 6.5 million electorate may stay home, reflecting disappointment with democratic politics 7 years after the fall of Milosevic took Serbia out of isolation and into a bumpy transition.

Apart from Kosovo, the country also faces the challenge of fulfilling its obligations to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague by arresting ethnic Serb war crime suspects from the Yugoslav wars.

The EU has said Belgrade will be welcome as an EU candidate once it has shown it can face up to its past by arresting the men accused of atrocities, who are believed to be hiding in Serbia with the help of hardliners.

(Editing by Ralph Boulton)

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