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Old Monday, April 9th, 2007
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Zrinski Zrinski is offline
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Default Re: What does the future of Bosnia look like?

First of all your prediction is very much unlikely. I predict that Bosnia-Herzegovina will remain whole just because this is what the international community wants and what they will enforce. The current status quo suits them just fine.

The most likely outcome is that there will be an internal reorganization. Something like formation of six region, two Serbian, two Croatian and two Muslim.

The Serbian will be: Eastern Bosnia-Herzegovina and Banja Luka region (along with the counties now in "Federation of BiH" such as Grahovo and Drvar). The Croatian will be: West Bosnia-Herzegovina and Posavina (expanded with "Republika Srpska" area of Bosanski Brod, Bosanski Šamac and Derventa).
The Muslim will be: Central Bosnia (plus Sarejvo-Goražde area) and Cazinska Krajina/Bihać area.

The entities will most likely remain as supra-administrative regions so the two Serbian region will remain in "Repulika Srpska" (though the name will most likely be changed because "Republika" implies something it is not) and the Croatian and Muslim regions will be the other entity. Bosnia and Herzegovina will be formed as a Federative state.

Also a small remark about one of your predictions...I just don't see the base for Serbian demand of Cazinska Krajina. This is by majority Muslim populated area, but many Croats live here. Also most Muslims in this region are actually very much pro-Croatian. Not to mention that historically this was part of Croatia. The city of Bihać was even the capital of Croatia for some time.

Edit:

This is what I mean by regions, it is modified ethnic map. The colors still represent the same ethnic groups but they do not show ethnic composition but territory under the control of those ethnic groups.

Last edited by Zrinski; Monday, April 9th, 2007 at 12:17.
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